SUMMARY OF 10 AM CDT INFORMATION
LOCATION…17.7N 71.4W
ABOUT 85 MI…140 KM SE OF PORT AU PRINCE, HAITI
ABOUT 430 MI…690 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY, JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1007 MB…29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba, Granma, Las Tunas, and Camaguey
* Cayman Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Entire coast of the Dominican Republic
* Entire coast of Haiti
* Jamaica
* Southern coast of the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas, as well as Isla de la Juventud.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Grace was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 71.4 West. Grace is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Grace will pass near the southern coast of Hispaniola today and tonight, and then pass between Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Grace is expected to become a tropical storm again by Tuesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS TO LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Dominican Republic today, in Haiti today into tonight, and in Jamaica on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the southern coast of Cuba within the warning area on Tuesday, and over the Cayman Islands beginning late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southern coast of Cuba within the watch area Tuesday night and Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Grace is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts:
Over Haiti and the Dominican Republic…5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, are expected across the southern terrain areas through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and possible mudslides.
Over Cuba, Jamaica, and the Cayman Islands…2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches are expected through Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by Grace will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico over the next day or so, and will spread westward to Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the southern coast of Cuba. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
