VERY MILD: We project a high between 75 and 79 degrees for most communities today; a good ten degrees above average for mid-March. A few showers could show up late today near the Mississippi border, but most of the state will remain dry despite some very active weather to the west.
The dual threat of flash flooding and severe storms will continue through parts of East Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas; additional rain amounts of 5-10 inches are likely in this zone in coming days potentially setting up a dangerous flood threat.
TOMORROW: A deep, anomalous upper trough over Mexico will begin to slowly lift out and weaken, and we will being in a chance of showers for Alabama. Best chance of some rain will be over the western half of the state, and the heaviest rain will remain to the west. The sky will be occasionally cloudy, and the high will remain in the 70s.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY: We will mention a chance of showers and thunderstorms both days, but the GFS has actually trended drier for Alabama in recent runs, keeping the axis of the most widespread rain still to the west. We won’t change the forecast much, but that gives some hope to those that are trying to get in outdoor events on these two days. One way or another it won’t rain all day Friday and Saturday, temperatures stay mild, and there is no risk of severe thunderstorms or flooding. There might even be a peek or two of sunshine along the way.
SUNDAY: Forecast confidence is fairly low due to model inconsistencies. The GFS is trending toward a risk of showers statewide Sunday, and we will need to introduce that risk in the forecast. Probably nothing too heavy or widespread, however. But, it does look like a moist airmass will remain in place. The high should be up in the low to mid 70s.
NEXT WEEK: Some risk of scattered showers Monday, then generally dry and mild weather Tuesday through mid-week. Highs hold in the 70s, possibly approaching 80 degrees by Tuesday and Wednesday. See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
AT THE BEACH: About 5-7 hours of sunshine today from Panama City Beach over to Gulf Shores with only a small risk of a shower; rain chances gradually increase tomorrow through Saturday, with the heaviest and most widespread rain from Pensacola over to Dauphin Island. The risk of rip tides will remain very high, and the surf will be dangerous. Highs on the immediate coast will be in the 60s, with 70s inland, and sea water temperatures are in the 60s. See a very detailed Gulf Coast forecast here.
STORM SPOTTER TRAINING: We are offering basic SKYWARN training at several locations across North/Central Alabama in March, followed by the big event, Storm Spotter Xtreme on Saturday, April 9 at the BJCC from 9am to 2pm. This will feature both the basic and advanced SKYWARN classes, along with a session from Kevin Laws of the Birmingham NWS office. And, if you come, you get free admission to the Alabama International Auto Show, going on at the BJCC that same day. There is no cost and no need to register. Just show up with a curious mind. Kids 10 and older will also enjoy this if they love weather and want to learn more. Please help us make the severe weather warning process better!
We had a great crowd in Jacksonville last night… we will be in Cullman next Tuesday night.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40.
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I will be speaking today to a group at UAB… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
