“We have the best weather service in the world. It’s a good thing, because we have the worst weather in the world.” That is how National Weather Service Director Jack Hayes led off his keynote address at the National Weather Association Convention in Louisville no October 14th. His theme was the evolution of our National Weather Service.
He spoke of some of the advances in the little over twenty years since the modernization of the NWS began. In 1987, tornado warning lead times were just four minutes. They have now grown to an average of fifteen minutes. In 1987, flash flood warning average lead times were less than ten minutes. They have now grown to over eighty minutes! The average track error in hurricane forecasts was over 250 miles at 48 hours then. It is less than 100 miles now.
But all is not good. Hurricane intensity forecasts have not improved. The average forecast error at 24 hours is 15 mph, like it was 20 years ago.
The wakeup call was Hurricane Humberto last year. It intensified rapidly in the last few hours before landfall on the Texas coast. The petroleum industry and emergency management communities were extremely unhappy with the forecast.
So, while tremendous advances have been made, the National Weather Service still has a way to go. More tomorrow about the prospects for the future.
