Always tough to handle the Weather Xtreme Video when we have active weather occurring since it will be changing rapidly during the day today. Currently around sunrise there is a line of storms in Mississippi moving steadily eastward. There was a surface low in Southwest Missouri with a cold front stretching southwestward into Southeast Texas. HRRR suggests this line will enter Alabama around 11 am to noon and make its way steadily across the state from west to east. HRRR also is suggesting the potential for additional storms to develop into the evening hours behind what I’ll call the main line of thunderstorms. SPC has the western half of the state in the standard slight risk for severe thunderstorms. While we do have a risk for severe storms, conditions do not appear likely for a big severe weather day. Damaging wind along with some large hail appear to be the main threats, but with a squall line, you can never completely rule out the potential for isolated tornadoes.
The trough axis moves by us by midday on Sunday, so Sunday afternoon looks dry and pleasant with highs in the lower 70s. But there won’t be a big lull as another upper level low comes out of the southern Rockies on Sunday poised to produce another round of severe weather just to our west-northwest. SPC has identified the standard slight risk area centered on Memphis, TN, for Monday, Day 3, and just clipping the extreme northwest corner of Alabama. So Monday afternoon/evening could be another stormy round for us. Temperatures will remain warm with highs in the upper 70s, perhaps some spots getting to 80.
Upper level ridging takes command of the pattern for Tuesday and Wednesday, so look for good weather that will remain warm with highs in the 70s. But there is little rest for weather folks with a deep closed low over the southern Rockies on Wednesday that kicks out into the Lower Mississippi River Valley on Thursday. This is likely to produce yet another round of severe weather for Texas on Day 4 and for Arkansas/Northeast Texas on Day 5. Predictability becomes too low to identify an area on Day 6 and 7. The extreme low latitude of both the upper system and the surface system suggest that the main severe weather threat is likely to stay along the Gulf Coast. But this will bear watching as we get closer to the event since model timing and position may be adjusted in future model runs.
Alabama, especially Central Alabama, still has lingering issues with Extreme Drought. The good news is that rainfall across Central Alabama for the next five days is likely to be in the range of 1.5 inches to 3 inches. This will continue to hammer away at drought conditions and perhaps bring all of Alabama out of any extreme drought condition and maybe even bring us out of severe drought – at least knock it back!
By next Saturday, that low latitude upper trough has moved off the Southeast US coast as we turn out attention to yet another closed low in the vicinity of the Four Corners area. This system has the potential to provide the Lower Mississippi River Valley and the Southeast US with an extended period of southwesterly flow aloft which could result in serious heavy rainfall situation for the area. This is getting into voodoo country, so I am not making a specific forecast for such an event just yet. But this pattern would be tapping into Pacific moisture, so we need to consider the possibilities.
By 300 hours, well into voodoo country, the GFS establishes a fairly deep trough along the East Coast which brings a northwesterly flow pattern into place for much of the Central and Southeast US. This looks pretty chilly, so we’ll need to keep an eye on the temperature forecasts, too.
The weather remains stormy at the beach until midweek. Rip current threat is also forecast to be high today, so be careful about venturing into the Gulf. Lows will be in the 60s and highs in the 70s. Click here to see the Beach Forecast Center page. Save Up To 25% on Spring Break Beach Vacations on the Alabama Gulf Coast with Brett/Robinson! The Beach Forecast is partially underwritten by the support of Brett/Robinson Vacation Rentals in Gulf Shores and Orange Beach. Click here to see Brett/Robinson’s best beach offers now!
The ABC 33/40 Weather Authority Team will be on the road through early April offering free storm spotter classes. We need more trained spotters in Alabama. By attending, you can make the severe weather warning process better. No need to register, just come with a curious mind. There is no age limit. Kids that love weather will enjoy it. You will never look at a storm the same again. Next week the Team will be at Oxford on Tuesday (at the Oxford Civic Center) and Jasper on Thursday (at the Jasper Civic Center). All programs begin at 6:30 pm.
I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted here on Sunday morning around 7 to 7:30. Stay weather aware today and be sure to have a way to receive weather warnings. Have a great day, be safe, and Godspeed.
-Brian-
