SUMMARY…An isolated strong to damaging wind gust and perhaps a brief tornado cannot be ruled out this evening. Watch issuance is unlikely.
DISCUSSION…23Z surface observations and recent radar imagery show thunderstorms ongoing along a cold front extending from east-central AL southwestward to the western FL Panhandle. The low-level airmass is not overly moist to the east of the ongoing convection, with surface dewpoints generally in the 62-67F range. Showers and low-topped thunderstorms have developed ahead of the front across parts of the western FL Panhandle and southeastern AL in a low-level warm air advection regime. This has limited diurnal heating across this region, and both low- and mid-level lapse rates remain poor. Accordingly, 23Z mesoanalysis estimates that instability is weak, with MLCAPE ranging from 250-500 J/kg. Still, a 50-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet and veering low-level wind profile per KEVX VWP is contributing to very strong low-level shear. Given the linear nature of the thunderstorms along the front, an isolated strong to damaging wind gust could occur. A brief QLCS tornado also cannot be ruled out with effective SRH of 250-450 m2/s2 present. The lack of greater low-level moisture and related instability will likely limit the overall severe threat, and watch issuance appears unlikely this evening as the line moves eastward.
