SUMMARY OF 1 PM CDT…1800 UTC…INFORMATION
LOCATION…42.0N 71.0W
ABOUT 20 MI…30 KM W OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH…50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…999 MB…29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Watch Hill Rhode Island to Merrimack River, Massachusetts including Cape Cod, Block Island, Martha’s Vineyard, and Nantucket
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
Satellite, radar, and surface observations indicate that Elsa has lost its tropical characteristics and has become a post-tropical cyclone. At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa was located by surface and radar data over southeastern Massachusetts near latitude 42.0 North, longitude 71.0 West. Elsa is moving toward the northeast near 31 mph (50 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Elsa will move near the coast of southeastern Massachusetts this afternoon, and then move offshore the northeastern United States coast by this evening. The system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is expected today. The post-tropical cyclone is forecast to gradually weaken over the weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) primarily to the east and southeast of the center. A WeatherFlow site at Kalmus Beach near Hyannis, Massachusetts recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a gust to 62 mph (100 km/h). An unofficial observing site near Falmouth, Massachusetts reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/) gusting to 49 mph (80 km/h). A wind gust to 48 mph (78 km/h) has been observed at the Nantucket Airport. NOAA buoy 44020 in Nantucket Sound measured a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface data is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue over portions of the warning area over the northeastern U.S. coast through mid-afternoon. Elsa is expected to bring gusty winds to portions of Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday after it becomes a post-tropical cyclone.
RAINFALL: Across southern and coastal New England…2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated totals up to 6 inches are possible through today, which could result in considerable flash and urban flooding. Isolated minor river flooding is also expected.
