SUMMARY OF 10:00 AM CDT INFORMATION
LOCATION…15.3N 49.3W
ABOUT 840 MI…1350 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH…33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1010 MB…29.83 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, and Montserrat
* Saba and Sint Eustatius
KEY MESSAGES
1. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and the risk of tropical storm conditions will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico late Sunday and Sunday night.
2. Heavy rainfall with this system may produce areas of scattered flash flooding over the northern Leeward Islands Saturday into Sunday.
3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and Cuba next week, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 49.3 West. The system is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected into early next week. On the forecast track, the system is expected to approach the Leeward Islands on Saturday, move over the Leeward Islands Saturday night and Sunday, and then be near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression tonight and a tropical storm by Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Saturday night or early Sunday.
RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce rainfall of 3 to 6 inches across the northern Leeward Islands Saturday into Sunday. This rainfall may produce scattered areas of flash flooding.
