RADAR CHECK: A large mass of rain and thunderstorms is pushing into West Alabama early this morning. Some surface based instability is available over Southwest Alabama, and a tornado watch has been issued for Choctaw, Washington, Clarke, and Mobile counties until 10:00 a.m. CT. SPC has defined an “enhanced risk” (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms today for areas south of I-20, and north of a line from Mobile to Troy to Opelika. The rest of the state is in a “slight risk” (level 2/5).
This is a complex forecast today. There is no surface based instability over the northern half of the state early this morning; initially the main threat will come from heavy rain and flooding, with the severe thunderstorm threat confined to the southwest counties. But, a warm front will push slowly northward, and instability (along with the tornado threat) will reach parts of Central Alabama by mid morning, and severe storms will be possible as far north as York, Clanton, Alexander City, and Roanoke in the 9:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. time frame.
The initial batch of storms will exit the state, and more thunderstorms will form ahead of a cold front this afternoon and early tonight. These storms will be much more scattered in nature, but they will be capable of producing hail, strong winds, and possibly a tornado or two between 2:00 and 10:00 p.m.
Be close attention to the weather today, and listen to any watch or warning that is issued (and be sure you can hear them). Temperatures will reach the 70s this afternoon, with low 80s possible over parts of West Alabama.
THE WEEKEND: Dry air returns, and we expect sunny pleasant days and fair cool nights. The high tomorrow will be in the mid 60s, followed by low 70s Sunday. Some of the colder spots could reach the 30s early Sunday with a touch of scattered light frost.
NEXT WEEK: Monday will be dry and mild with a high in the 70s… then another dynamic weather system will bring another chance of strong to severe thunderstorms to the state by late Tuesday, Tuesday night, and early Wednesday morning. Still too early to know the magnitude of this event; once we get past the storms today we can be much more specific. Thursday and Friday are looking dry for now… See the Weather Xtreme video for maps, graphics, and more details.
ON THIS DATE IN 1925: The great “Tri-State Tornado” occurred, the deadliest tornado in U.S. history. The storm claimed 695 lives (including 234 at Murphysboro, IL, and 148 at West Frankfort, IL), and caused seventeen million dollars property damage. It cut a swath of destruction 219 miles long and as much as a mile wide from east-central Missouri to southern Indiana between 1 PM and 4 PM. The tornado leveled a school in West Frankfort, Illinois, and picked up sixteen students setting them down unharmed 150 yards away. Seven other tornadoes claimed an additional 97 lives that day.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
