You can watch the Tuesday afternoon Weather Xtreme Video in the player above, or get it on iTunes.
A LITTLE RAIN: As I write this post a band of showers is slowly moving through Northwest Alabama. Rain is falling in places like Muscle Shoals and Florence, and the line of showers will slowly drop southward tonight. Some trick or treaters will have to dodge raindrops this evening over the northwest part of the state. We note very few lightning strikes in the band of showers; we don’t expect any problems with thunder/lightning this evening with a stable layer near the surface.
There are other rain echoes on adjacent radar systems over Alabama, but that is all virga (rain evaporating before reaching the ground). We will maintain the chance of showers tonight and tomorrow, but a big rain event is not likely. Using the 12Z model runs, the NAM/WRF shows 0.24″ for Birmingham, while the GFS prints 0.14″.
COLDER AIR TO RETURN: The weather turns sharply cooler on Thursday as a new surge of dry, continental air arrives. Looks like we will struggle to reach 60 degrees on Thursday with a chilly north wind. Then, by Friday morning, we have dropped the forecast lows down into the mid 30s. A few spots around here might even touch the freezing mark briefly early Friday. During the day Friday, we expect maximum sunshine with a high only around 60.
THE WEEKEND: Saturday morning will be cold; look for lows between 30 and 35 degrees with a good chance of frost. Some colder valleys might reach the 20s. Then, a warming trend begins Saturday afternoon as we rise into the mid 60s under a bright, sunny sky. Sunday will also be mostly sunny, with a high close to 70.
NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS continues to show a rather dynamic weather system moving through Alabama Tuesday of next week (November 7)… that seems to be our next good chance of a significant rain event. Not sure we can get enough instability in here for severe weather, but it is not out of the question.
LONG RANGE: The GFS is really trying to tell us we will have one, and maybe two very strong storm systems to deal with in the November 10-20 time frame. It can’t tell us the details, however, and it is really useless to try and speculate this far in advance. But, bottom line is that a severe weather threat and a sharp change to colder weather looks like a pretty good bet during that ten day time frame. It will be interesting to watch it unfold.
A reminder we have plenty of great weather links over on the left sidebar, and also some information about events like Storm Alert XTREME (coming to the BJCC November 11), and the ABC 33/40 Skywatcher program. Also, if you want to learn more about any of the blog writers, just click on our picture on the top banner. Nice to have J.B. and Bill Murray up there since they work very hard on the blog project.
Had a great visit to Fayette today; watch for the second graders on ABC 33/40 News (on the KIDCAM!) today at 5:00. I will write about the trip, and share a few pictures on the blog tonight. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… be safe tonight!
