Today’s morning Weather Xtreme video is available on the player above, or on iTunes. Don’t forget I will usually post this discussion a little before the current video is loaded (we have to render the video, no rendering for a typed discussion!). The morning video is up by 7:00 a.m., and the afternoon video by 3:30 p.m.
A CHILLY WIND: Cold air has returned to Alabama. Our SKYCAM site at Hamilton is showing 35 degrees now, quite a change from time time yesterday with temperatures were in the mid 50s. We note the sky is now clear at Hamilton, which bodes well for a rapid clearing this morning. Even with returning sunshine, temperatures will be well below normal; I think most places will remain below 60. We are still projecting a light freeze tomorrow morning; our forecast agrees nicely with guidance… looks like most places will wind up somewhere between 28 and 33 degrees. After a sunny and cool day tomorrow, temperatures will drop quickly tomorrow night, and we head for the low 30s again early Saturday.
WEEKEND THOUGHTS: The weather still looks dry for the weekend, with lots of sun on Saturday, and a partly sunny sky on Sunday. Highs will be in the mid 60s on both days.
NEXT WEEK: While general model madness continues, we are beginning to see a little more agreement (run to run on the GFS, and with the ECMWF). The models are really trying to build a warm ridge across the Gulf of Mexico and the southeast U.S., which keeps the main short wave train north of here next week. The system over Texas lifts well north of Alabama and dampens out, and the GFS has really backed off on the mid-week rain event. For now we have a good chance of showers and storms in the forecast for Wednesday, but we might back off on that in the afternoon update. We also need to note there could be enough moisture on Monday for a few widely scattered showers, we might consider inserting that in the forecast as well. But the message here is that the chance of a big rain event for next week is diminishing with an upper ridge building overhead. This would also suggest warmer than normal weather by the latter half of the week.
LONG RANGE: Way out there in voodoo land, the GFS brings a very dynamic system north of Alabama at mid-month (around November 15), which might bring some risk of strong to severe storms. But, a couple of days later the model lifts the westerlies well to the north of here, up around the Canadian border, which keeps the cold air locked over the northern part of the continent. Not sure this is correct with a generally negative NAO showing up. No confidence at all in anything specific, but I do think a major storm system is a fairly good possibility at mid-month.
A DECADE OF ALABAMA WEATHER: A reminder you can watch our special “A Decade Of Alabama Weather” on our web site, just scroll down to video vault.
BUSY DAYS: As always, lots of things are going on in the weather office this time of the year. We are gearing up for Storm Alert XTREME on Saturday November 11 at the BJCC. This is our once a year training event; if you want to learn how to spot tornadoes and other types of severe weather, you need to be there. No cost, and we are doing this in association with the Birmingham International Auto Show, which is going on at the same time at the BJCC. If you attend, you can visit our “Who Wants To Be A Meteorologist” booth and make a tape in front of the big green wall with our weather graphics. We always have lots of fun with that every year.
I will have the afternoon Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
