Check out today’s afternoon Weather Xtreme video in the player below, or on iTunes:
RAIN INTO WEST ALABAMA: The large shield of rain has slipped into West Alabama this afternoon; that rain area will slowly shift eastward tonight and should cover all of the state by 9:00 p.m. or so. We will highlight rain and a few thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow, with most communities getting a good soaking, but not enough rain for flooding problems.
The model QPF numbers have flipped a bit since the morning post (I was using the 00Z data then); the 12Z NAM/WRF is forecasting 1.81″ for Birmingham, while the GFS has backed down to 1.28″. Looks like one inch of rain is a great bet, with some local amounts to 2 inches. The HPC QPF graphic (see the video) looks a little overdone to me.
Severe weather still doesn’t look like a problem; CAPE values are low (highest value of surface based CAPE on the NAM/WRF is 300 j/kg at 36 hours) and instability is very marginal.
WEDNESDAY: I sure think we need to hang on to some risk of stray showers Wednesday morning with the upper low not that far east of here. Maybe even a Wednesday afternoon shower in spots near the Georgia border. Highs will hold in the 60s on Wednesday with only limited sunshine.
WARMER AND DRIER DAYS: Thursday and Friday still look delightful, with sunny and mild conditions. The 12Z GFS has a high of 76 on Thursday, and 80 degrees on Friday. Sure looks possible, but for now we will keep highs in the mid to upper 70s.
WEEKEND PEEK: Saturday should be mostly dry and mild, but a cold front will bring the risk of a few showers by Saturday night. The 12Z run of the GFS continues the model madness, giving us a different look on Sunday with the front still over the northern part of the state; if that is correct we will need to hang on to some risk of showers on Sunday. Once again, severe weather or really heavy rain doesn’t look especially likely over the weekend with the main system passing well to the north of Alabama.
NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS wants to build a strong upper ridge across the southeast U.S., which acts like a brick wall keeping the big storm over the plains west and north of here. The NAO is in neutral territory, so I guess this is possible, but I am not sure that ridge can hold back the whopper of a storm that should form over the southern plains early in the week. All we can do is stay tuned. I still would not be shocked for some kind of severe weather risk here in the November 14-15 time frame.
WOOHOO: Wow, what a great surprise this morning. I found some super fall foliage scenes in a spot where I typically visit in the late spring. I must have taken over 100 pictures while I was there; I will write about the place and post of the pictures on the blog this evening. The place was simply breathtaking. One hint… I spoke today to the FCA (Fellowship of Christian Athletes) at West Blocton High School. Anyone guess the place? I wrote about it this past May in the annual “Spann’s Best Way To The Bama Beaches” article.
WEATHERPARTY: Lots of interesting reading over on WeatherParty.com… be sure and register and you can submit links and vote on them!
STORM ALERT XTREME: Make plans to be there Saturday for the annual Storm Alert XTREME... we will begin at 9:30 at the BJCC. I will try to post some more specific directions on how to get in early tomorrow… about the time the next Weather Xtreme video is up by 7:00 a.m.!
