The Tuesday afternoon Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes. Remember the video loads a little while after this post is made; it is ready each morning by 7:00 a.m. and each afternoon by 3:30 p.m. (if we are on time!)
THE ALABAMA WEATHER STORY: The cold core upper low is passing right over North Alabama right now… thunderstorms have formed over on the eastern side of the state in the general area from Gadsden to Anniston to Ashland. With the cold air aloft, there might be a report of small hail in those showers and storms during the next hour. Elsewhere, we will maintain some risk of a little scattered light rain or drizzle tonight and early tomorrow, but the heavier rains have ended for now.
BRIGHTER AND WARMER DAYS: Thursday will feature a bright sunny sky and a very mild afternoon; we should reach the mid 70s. Similar weather is expected on Friday, but to the west strong to severe storms could become an issue in the general area from eastern Texas to southern Illinois in advance of a developing storm system.
THE WEEKEND: More model madness. Just be aware that forecast confidence is pretty low for the weekend and most of next week with absolutely no run to run consistency. The 12Z GFS now zips the cold front through here on Saturday, which would mean a decent chance of showers and storms during the day as we begin the weekend. This new look also shows dry air back in here on Sunday. We will slowly adjust the forecast, and for now mention the best chance of showers and storms Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. But, if the new GFS is correct, we might have rain as early as Saturday morning. Highs over the weekend should be in the 70s.
Dynamics are looking better in our weekend system, so some strong storms are possible around here when the rain does come, but a major severe weather threat still looks unlikely.
NEXT WEEK: A coin flip will be better than looking at model output. See the video for the new wild look on the 12Z GFS for next week; instead of the warm ridge holding the cold air back like we showed you this morning, the new run shows a deep plunge of cold air into the Deep South at mid-week with snow flurries possible as far south as Birmingham. We discount this solution for now with the NAO right at neutral levels. Also, the ECMWF (European) doesn’t back up that idea. If the NAO was strongly negative, and the ECMWF agreed with the cold air plunge, I would sure roll with it. But that isn’t the case…
One way or another, I still have some concern about the chance of strong to severe storms at the beginning of the week, and if 12Z GFS is wrong, some concern about flooding if the front goes stationary across the southern states. It will be very fun to watch all of this unfold in coming days. Just another reason to love November… the weather is always interesting around here.
JOIN THE PARTY: Lots of interesting stuff to read over on WeatherParty.com. Incredible flooding in the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia, a major tornado in Japan, more global warming madness, and more.
STORM ALERT XTREME: We look forward to seeing you Saturday at Storm Alert XTREME at the BJCC... if you join us for our annual severe weather training session, then you get free admission to the 2007 Alabama International Auto Show, also going on at the BJCC. Pretty cool deal. Remember, we only do this once a year… so don’t miss it!
I sure enjoyed meeting some great Americans at the Birmingham Veterans Hospital today. They all were very kind and I am so thankful to them for their service to our nation. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
