The Wednesday morning edition of our Weather Xtreme Video is available on the player below, and on iTunes:
The overall confidence level in the forecast over the next 10 days is much higher this morning… it will be quite a roller coaster ride. Lets break it all down:
TODAY: The sky should clear from west to east today as the big storm system lifts northeast away from Alabama. The clouds could linger all day near the Georgia border, but most places should be in sunshine by afternoon.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: These days will be dry and mild with mid 70s tomorrow, and upper 70s on Friday. Somebody might even see 80 on their backyard thermometer over West Alabama Friday afternoon; that is near record levels for November in Alabama. On Friday, however, to the west there will be a severe weather threat from North Louisiana and much of Mississippi northward to the southern part of Illinois and Indiana. Not a classic setup, however, with the instability and dynamics out of phase.
OUR WEEKEND: We will forecast a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday as a cold front moves through. The chance of severe weather in Alabama looks low as the main dynamics will be north of the state, and there will be limited instability here. In fact, rain totals probably won’t be all that heavy, and the rain certainly won’t last all day. If you have some outdoor plans on Saturday just be aware that a passing shower or storm is a good possibility. Drier air returns Saturday night, and Sunday at this point looks like a beautiful day with ample sunshine and a high somewhere between 67 and 70.
NEXT WEEK: The 06Z GFS looks good to me, and agrees nicely with the European model (the ECMWF). These models suggest Monday will be dry, but they bring a major storm system though here Tuesday into Wednesday, which will bring the risk of strong to severe storms, followed by a sharp change to colder temperatures. We have been looking at a severe weather risk in this period (November 14-15) for a couple of weeks now, and that possibility still looks very good. A bit too early to really pin down the timing, or true magnitude of the severe weather potential, but we will watch it closely in coming days.
The 06z GFS looks very realistic with the cold air shot following the storms. A deep upper trough will open the door to the Polar region for a couple of days, but the cooling is not as extreme as the runs we saw yesterday. The 5400 meter 1000 to 500 mb thickness line drops down into the Tennessee Valley Thursday; this should get us down to levels below freezing toward the end of next week. Probably some snow as far south as the Great Smoky Mountains of East Tennessee.
STORM ALERT EXTREME: Don’t forget our annual severe weather training extravaganza is this Saturday at the BJCC. Doesn’t cost a dime, and you even get free admission to the 2007 Alabama International Auto Show, which is also going on this weekend at the BJCC.
I will be visiting Vestavia Central Elementary today, and will be back in the station early this afternoon and should have the afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video ready by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
