The Wednesday afternoon edition of our Weather Xtreme Video is here on the blog in the player below, and also available on iTunes….
CLOUDS MOVING OUT: While the sun is shining brightly at our Riverchase studio, I am watching our SKYCAM at Mt. Cheaha; they are still overcast with only 50 degrees and a chilly west wind. The clearing line is close, however, and all of Alabama should be clear by early tonight.
WARMER DAYS: Lots of sunshine tomorrow and Friday with very mild afternoons for November, we still expect mid 70s tomorrow and upper 70s on Friday. We will be paying attention to developments to the west of Alabama Friday; there is some risk of severe storms from Louisiana and Texas northward to the southern tip of Illinois and Indiana, and the far northwest corner of Alabama is in that slight risk as defined by SPC in their day 3 convective outlook.
That band of showers and storms will move through here sometime from midnight Friday night through the midday hours on Saturday. The chance of severe weather here looks low with very marginal instability values, and the with the better dynamics passing north of Alabama. There will be some risk of rain for the Auburn/Georgia game down at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday (that one kicks off at 11:30). Sunday should be dry and pleasant with a good supply of sunshine and highs in the 66 to 70 degree range.
NEXT WEEK: Two words: model madness. I think we simply have to forget about the run to run variations… watch the video if you want to see the 12Z GFS and ECMWF. Best bet is this: there will be some risk of strong to severe storms in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, followed by a sharp change (but temporary) to colder weather over the latter part of the week. We will have to wait until Friday before we can really get specific about the magnitude of the severe weather risk and the depth of the cold air.
LONG RANGE: The GFS is trending toward a zonal flow in the November 20-24 time frame, which will keep the coldest air bottled up over the northern part of the nation. Way, way too early to even think about a specific Thanksgiving forecast… figuring out next week is tough enough.
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STORM ALERT XTREME: The big event is this Saturday… make plans to be there. Get details here.
I enjoyed seeing the kids in the 4th grade today at Vestavia Central Elementary School… watch for them on the KIDCAM today on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
