You can watch the afternoon edition of the Weather Xtreme video in the player below, or over on iTunes take your pick. And, remember the video is usually ready by 7:00 a.m. and 3:30 p.m. I often get this discussion posted on the blog before the video is ready. Some days we can get the video up early, but others we run right to the last minute. Always something going on around here!
WARM NOVEMBER WEATHER: Our SKYCAM site in downtown Birmingham (the Daniel Building on 20th Street) is showing 77 degrees as I write this; right at our forecast high for today. I sure get the idea a number of communities will see 80 degrees tomorrow as this “heat wave” continues; if we do reach 80 that is only two degrees off the record high for the date (82 in 2002), and 13 degrees above the average high of 67.
While we will be dry tomorrow, a band of showers and storms will develop west of the state tomorrow afternoon, and SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms from East Texas, North Louisiana, and North Mississippi northward through much of Arkansas and the western part of Tennessee. That risk clips the extreme northwest corner of Alabama, but we are still not very bullish on any severe weather here. The highest surface based CAPE on the NAM/WRF model in Birmingham is only 124 j/kg, and the surface dewpoint never makes it to 60.
Still looks like the best window for showers and storms here in Alabama will come from about 3:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. Saturday. The showers should move through fairly quickly, so rainfall amounts probably won’t be heavy. In fact, the NAM/WRF prints a paltry 0.01″ here, barely enough to get the pavement wet. The GFS is only slightly wetter at 0.13″. So, the clear message is that Saturday won’t be a wash-out by any means. However, temperatures will be much cooler; the high on Saturday will be only in the 60 to 64 degree range.
Sunday still looks like a beautiful day, with lots of sunshine and a high in the 65 to 69 degree range.
NEXT WEEK: Still looks like the big show will come sometime in the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame. A few showers are possible with a weak disturbance Monday afternoon or Monday evening, but rain amounts with that feature should be light.
The GFS continues to show a full latitude, dynamic upper trough rolling through the eastern half of the nation next week. The 12Z run hints the best chance of strong to severe storms will come Tuesday night, but we note the ECWMF (the European model) is slower, and holds off the big storm event until Wednesday. We can fine tune the forecast in coming days; just be aware a significant risk of severe thunderstorms is possible by the middle part of next week.
There will be a quick shot of colder air following the storms during the latter half of next week, we might struggle to reach the low 50s by Thursday with a chilly north breeze. A freeze sure seems likely by Friday morning, and maybe Saturday morning as well.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: I still don’t want to go there… lets get next week under our belt before we start looking at the travel weather situation.
I had a great morning… spent some time with TV legend Art Linkletter, who was speaking at The Club at a big senior adult event hosted by the Scott Dawson Evangelistic Association. I remember Art on a show called “House Party” when I was a very young child… and watched him on many other shows growing up. Art is 94 years old, and still does over 70 speeches a year. This guy is really full of life… I enjoyed getting to know him. I also live his passion for kids. They DO say the darndest things.
I will be down at the BJCC doing the weather at 5:00 and 6:00 from the 2007 Alabama International Auto Show, the site of Saturday’s Storm Alert XTREME. I hope to see all of you there… Brian Peters is one of the best SKYWARN trainers in the nation!
I will have the morning edition of the Weather XTREME video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
