The morning edition of the Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below, and also on iTunes….
What an inversion across the state this morning… while Anniston is reporting 28 degrees with a thick blanket of frost, our thermometer atop Mount Cheaha is showing 50 degrees… a 22 degree difference! That is yet another great example of why this is not a “one number” place when it comes to forecasting highs and lows.
We will warm up quickly today, with most folks winding up in the upper 60s this afternoon with a good supply of sunshine. Tomorrow will be another dry day; just a few scattered clouds with the mercury reaching the upper 60s again. To the west, however, strong to severe storms could form late in the day, or tomorrow night, over parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi, as a major November storm forms over the Mid-South.
SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY? That is the big issue we deal with this morning. A very dynamic upper trough will rotate through there, with 500 mb winds in excess of 50 knots, and 200 mb winds over 100 knots. A very diffluent pattern aloft will be in place, and at the surface a deep low will be somewhere between Memphis and St. Louis, a very favorable position for severe storms in Alabama. The big question, as has been the case in recent weeks, involves instability.
The highest surface based CAPE generated by the NAM/WRF model is only 208 j/kg Wednesday. However, the GFS is a little slower and brings in the main band of storms during the peak of the daytime heating, and the CAPE values rise to near 500. Certainly, with this cold, dry continental air in place it will be hard to get dewpoints in the mid 60s back in here, but with such a dynamic weather system, even with marginal instability a band of severe storms with damaging wind will be a good possibility. Shear profiles also suggest a few isolated tornadoes in any isolated storms ahead of the line.
Seems like the best combination of helicity and instability will come between I-20 and U.S. 80, or the general area between Birmingham and Montgomery. As always, we will be waiting and watching.
COLDER THURSDAY: We might hold in the 40s much of the day Thursday with wrap around clouds and some lingering light rain during the morning hours. Friday will be sunny and cool, and then over the weekend a dry cold front will pass through on Saturday, which will bring more cold and dry air.
THANKSGIVING WEEK: Watch the video for details on next week… I go through each day on the 06Z GFS. Bottom line is that the weather around here looks pretty benign for the week. The northeast looks cold and possibly snowy at times, and very wet weather continues over the northern half of the Pacific coast, where flooding issues will remain a concern.
THANKS: A big thank you to everyone for coming out to Storm Alert XTREME at the BJCC Saturday… we had a great crowd and Brian, as always, did a wonderful job with training. We have picked up a large number of additions to our Skywatcher network, which is exactly what we hoped for. The Birmingham Automobile Dealers Association were great hosts, and we are already planning Storm Alert XTREME 2007 at the Alabama International Auto Show next year. I will post show pictures from Saturday here on the blog shortly.
I will be out at Riverchase Elementary School today… the next Weather Xtreme video will be ready by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy your Monday!
