The Monday afternoon Weather Xtreme video is available on the player below, and also on iTunes:
Interesting to note there are a few sprinkles over Northwest Alabama this afternoon; our friends up at Stratus Station in Hamilton report a few drops reaching the ground from those echoes you see on radar, but most places will remain dry as a short wave passes over very dry air near the surface. The clouds will thin out tonight, and most places will dip into the upper 30s by daybreak tomorrow. Tomorrow looks dry and pleasant with a partly sunny sky and a high in the upper 60s.
To the west, SPC maintains a slight of severe weather tomorrow for much of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas as a very dynamic storm system gets it act together.
WILD WEDNESDAY? If a good layer of moist, unstable air near the surface would be in place, the stage would be set for a major severe weather threat on Wednesday. But, that isn’t exactly the case as it is going to take some time to displace this cool, dry continental air covering the Deep South. The degree of instability holds the key to the severe weather threat on Wednesday.
The 12Z run of the NAM/WRF continues to show very little in the way of surface based CAPE… values are all under 100 j/kg for the Birmingham metro. The GFS sings pretty much the same song; big dynamics, but little in the way of thermodynamics. There is a sliver of instability (LI of -2 or lower) just ahead of the main system Wednesday afternoon, and considering the forcing I still think you have to mention a chance of severe storms. Helicity values are sky high, so any storms ahead of the main line might exhibit some rotation.
I still think the sweet spot (best combination of dynamics and instability) will be in the general area between Birmingham and Montgomery, and the best chance of severe storms seems to be in the 11:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. time frame.
Everyone needs to review their severe weather plan in case severe weather does become an issue on Wednesday. And, for our Skywatchers we ask that they log onto our IM conference and be ready for reporting. Should be an interesting day.
THURSDAY: This will be a blustery day. Clouds all day, some light rain or drizzle during the morning, and temperatures in the 40s all day. North winds up to 25 mph are possible.
FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Another shot of cold air should arrive over the weekend, but that front should come through without any really significant amount of rain. Cloudy periods are likely, and maybe even some drizzle at times. Temperatures will be below normal for mid-November.
NEXT WEEK: Watch the video and we walk you through the 12Z GFS on a daily basis next week… again the bottom line is that the weather around here looks pretty benign for the Thanksgiving holiday; cool and dry for much of the week.
Be sure and check out Bill Murray’s pictures from his train ride up to New York… I always enjoy reading about his travels.
WEATHER PARTY: Always something interesting to read over on our sister site, weatherparty.com. If you register you can submit articles and vote on them as well to determine what shows up on the front page.
I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!
