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Wow, better late than never. I had planned to do it from just east of Tallahassee, Florida, however, ran into a connectivity issue this morning, so we made the trek home as planned and I’m posting a late day Weather Xtreme Video.
Looks like much of the upcoming week will be just fine and rather warm. Temperatures this afternoon were running nearly 10 degrees above the highs you would normally expect in late November – lower 60s. And it looks like the pattern will be positive for the warm weather to continue at least to mid-week.
As a strong trough becomes organized over the western US, our area will come under a solid southwesterly flow that should keep conditions warm through Wednesday. Clouds and an approaching cold front Thursday will see temperatures drop back slightly on Thursday but wait until Friday for the BIG change. Cold air behind the front while shallow will make it tough for the highs to get out of the 40s. While the moisture should come along and ahead of the front, any lingering moisture could result in a bit of freezing rain. It’s not likely to be a major icing event but it is also a long want into the future to be very specific. In most cases, the moisture vacates the area just prior to the arrival of the cold air, so timing is also a big factor. Another stay tuned event, though, and one we’ll be watching.
I have not been watching the weather much while in Florida, so I really don’t have a good handle on the history of the models on this one. But one thing that struck me on the 12Z GFS model run was the tremendous change to the thickness pattern. On Thursday the 540 line goes south to around San Angelo, Texas, but then the GFS brings it way back north into Kentucky. This could mean a rather shallow cold layer and we have to be very vigilant with those since the model guidance does not do a stellar job with those scenarios. Another reason to make this a stay tuned event.
Got to get stuff unpacked from the travel trailer so will wind this up for now. Back again tomorrow morning with another Weather Xtreme Video. Have a great Saturday evening.
-Brian-
