The Monday morning edition of the Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
We are back on the regular schedule today, so there will be another video posted by 3:30 this afternoon. I sure hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving. A LONG weekend for most people… now it is back in the saddle and time to get to work.
The cold weather season offers unique forecast challenges here, as you know, and the purpose of this blog is to simply let you know what we are thinking. You can read our “official” forecast over on the seven day page anytime. We go way beyond that here with all of the juicy details.
Also, anytime there is some risk of a major shot of cold air, or any kind of freezing or frozen precipitation around here, emotions tend to run very high among weather fans, almost like some kind of Alabama-Auburn football feud. I guarantee you, just about anything we write here this week is going to make someone mad. I have no idea why, but I learned long ago that is just the way it is. We allow open comments here, so you can fire away, but remember we don’t allow profanity or personal attacks. What I write here is simply a statement of what I really think is going to happen; it is not designed to make anyone happy or mad. Having said all of that…
WATCHING THE COLD: I see a -44 up in northern Saskatchewan this morning; the cold up in the northern part of the continent is of historic proportion for so early in the season. That cold air is dipping down into the U.S.; Cutbank, Montana is reporting 8 degrees below zero right now. Seattle reported snow early this morning; something they rarely see, even in the deed of winter. Sometimes you have to put all of the computer model mumbo-jumbo aside and simply look out the window. The weather is bone chilling cold up north. Cold air is dense and heavy, and will move one way or another. If the upper air winds allow it, the air can move in a hurry, and in full force. Otherwise, the air just seeps southward, and is very shallow on the edge of the airmass. For Alabama, it is going to be a case of “seeping” late this week.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: While moisture levels will increase, and there will be cloudy periods, the chance of rain will remain rather small through Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures will remain mild, mostly in the 68 to 72 degree range. Nights will be much warmer. The cold air will move deeper into the western and central part of the nation during the next three days.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: The cold front, the leading edge of the much colder air, will remain west of here Thursday. While a few scattered showers could pop up during the day Thursday, it looks now like the main risk of showers and storms will come late Thursday night into Friday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has all of Alabama in a severe weather risk in their “day 4 through 8” convective outlook. At this point it looks like the best chance of strong to severe storm will come sometime from midnight Thursday night through noon Friday.
I am not too bullish on the prospect of severe weather with marginal instability values.
The GFS and the ECMWF are in pretty good agreement now, making for a fairly high confidence forecast. Both models take the big western trough, and break a piece of it off. That short wave moves north of Alabama on Friday, and will drag the cold front through here Friday morning. For most of north-central Alabama, we will probably begin the day around 60 Friday, with temperatures falling into the 30s by mid to late afternoon. For the northwest corner of the state, Muscle Shoals will probably be in the 30s all day with an icy north wind.
At midday Friday, we figure the temperature will range from about 34 at Muscle Shoals to around 60 at Sylacauga, Ashland, and Roanoke.
The chance of any freezing or frozen precipitation on Friday, at this point, looks small for this part of the state. Best chance of any snow flakes will be up over that far northwest corner of Alabama; probably nothing more than flurries.
Most spots will drop into the 20s by Saturday morning.
THE WEEKEND: Winds aloft remain out of the southwest over the weekend, so the front should be stalled somewhere over far South Alabama. Highs on Saturday and Sunday should be in the 50s, and for now we don’t expect any rain.
NEXT WEEK: Another cold front, this one with better upper support, should bring some rain by Monday night and Tuesday, and then another shot of colder air by Tuesday night and Wednesday.
LONG RANGE: The NAO really hovers near neutral through mid-December, so any long term cold wave isn’t likely.
WEATHER PARTY: Be sure and bookmark our sister site, weatherparty.com, for some fascinating weather news. You can register and submit links and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page.
I will be at Greystone Elementary in Hoover this morning, then back in the office for the afternoon Weather Xtreme video, which should be posted by 3:30 or so. Have a great Monday!
