HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
900 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007
…DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA…
SYNOPSIS…
THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR PLACES A LARGE AREA OF NORTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA UNDER EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS…THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF
DROUGHT. A FEW OF THE LARGER CITIES WITHIN THIS CLASSIFICATION
INCLUDE: BIRMINGHAM, JASPER, ONEONTA AND GADSDEN. THE MAJORITY OF
NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS UNDER EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS…ROUGHLY NORTH OF A SWEET WATER TO PRATTVILLE TO PHENIX
CITY LINE…WITH AREAS SOUTH OF THIS LINE EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO
SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT
WITHIN ONE OF THESE FIVE CATEGORIES:
1) ABNORMALLY DRY
2) MODERATE
3) SEVERE
4) EXTREME
5) EXCEPTIONAL
SOME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA SINCE JANUARY 1:
BIRMINGHAM…..10.36
MONTGOMERY…..12.82
ANNISTON……..8.90
TUSCALOOSA……8.82
CALERA……….9.02
TROY………..13.83
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FROM
JANUARY 1 THROUGH JUNE 07:
BIRMINGHAM…..26.14 -15.78
MONTGOMERY…..26.31 -13.49
ANNISTON…….26.36 -17.46
TUSCALOOSA…..27.72 -18.90
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS…
LOW SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS A MAJOR CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA.
CENTRAL ALABAMA SOILS ARE EXTREMELY DRY WITH SOIL MOISTURE
PERCENTILES IN THE 5 PERCENT OR LOWER OF NORMAL RANGE. AS WE HEAD
INTO THE SUMMER SEASON…A RETURN TO NORMAL RAINFALL IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CRITICAL FOR SUSTAINING HEALTHY CROP AND LIVESTOCK
PRODUCTION…AS WELL AS LAWNS AND LANDSCAPING OF HOMEOWNERS.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS…
FIRE DANGER RISKS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DUE TO THE
LACK OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE KEETCH-BRYAN DROUGHT INDICES
(KBDI) …CURRENTLY IN THE 500 TO 600 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA…INDICATE A SEVERE FIRE DANGER. SOME WILDFIRES HAVE
OCCURRED IN CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE ALABAMA
FORESTRY COMMISSION HAS ISSUED A FIRE ALERT WHICH COVERS ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA.
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS…
AREA RIVERS…STREAMS AND RESERVOIRS ARE RUNNING BELOW TO MUCH BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THE RISK OF SERIOUS NEGATIVE
IMPACTS IS INCREASING. MANY STREAM FLOWS ARE AT OR NEAR RECORD LOW
LEVELS…WITH MOST IN THE 10 PERCENTILE OF NORMAL OR LOWER RANGE.
AREA RESERVOIR OPERATORS INDICATE THAT POOL LEVELS AND INFLOWS ON
MANY RESERVOIRS ARE CRITICALLY LOW AND ARE SEVERELY IMPACTING
OPERATIONS. SOME MAJOR AREA RESERVOIRS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO FILL TO
NORMAL SUMMER POOL LEVELS IF SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL DOES NOT OCCUR.
SOCIAL IMPACTS…
AS WE HEAD INTO THE PEAK SEASON FOR RECREATIONAL WATER USAGE ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA…SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
IMPACT AREA WATER SUPPLIES. THERE ARE SOME VOLUNTARY WATER
RESTRICTIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE…WITH THE NUMBER OF LOCALIZED
MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS INCREASING. MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY AS
WE HEAD INTO SUMMER IF BENEFICIAL RAINS DO NOT OCCUR. MANY
RESIDENTIAL LAWNS…SHRUBBERY…AND GARDENS WILL ALSO BE STRESSED BY
THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK…
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS…HOWEVER IT WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST…THROUGH MAY 19TH…CALLS FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS WOULD PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF
TO AREA LAWNS AND GARDENS…IT WOULD TAKE SEVERAL MONTHS OF AVERAGE
TO ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL TO BRING THE AREA OUT OF DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK…FOR LATE MAY THROUGH JULY…CALLS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF
BELOW…NORMAL OR ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.
…UPDATE STATEMENT…
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND JUNE
14TH…OR POSSIBLY EARLIER IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CURRENT
DROUGHT SITUATION OCCUR.
