Fromt the National Weather Service Birmingham…
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK…CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
715 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2007
…DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA…
SYNOPSIS…
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL HAVE BEEN
PLAGUING THE AREA SO FAR IN AUGUST. THIS HAS LED TO ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR, WHICH HAS
EXPANDED THE EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AREA TO COVER ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FALLS WITHIN EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THE DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT WITHIN ONE OF
THESE FIVE CATEGORIES:
1) ABNORMALLY DRY
2) MODERATE
3) SEVERE
4) EXTREME
5) EXCEPTIONAL
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED IN ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
DURING THE PAST WEEK WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS REACHING 104 DEGREES OR
HIGHER. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY SPARSE SO FAR IN AUGUST WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RECEIVING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS HAS LED TO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DEFICITS OF 20+ INCHES FOR MANY. AVERAGE
RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR AUGUST IS BETWEEN 3.75 AND 4.25 INCHES.
SOME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA JANUARY 1ST THROUGH
AUGUST 10TH:
BIRMINGHAM 15.35
MONTGOMERY 20.02
ANNISTON 12.38
TUSCALOOSA 13.78
CALERA 14.79
TROY 23.09
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FROM
JANUARY 1ST THROUGH AUGUST 10TH:
BIRMINGHAM, 35.36 DOWN 20.01
MONTGOMERY 36.10 DOWN 16.08
ANNISTON 35.25 DOWN 22.87
TUSCALOOSA 38.10 DOWN 24.32
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS…
LOW SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS A MAJOR PROBLEM ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE MAJORITY OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA SOILS REMAIN
EXTREMELY DRY WITH SOIL MOISTURE PERCENTILES BELOW 10 PERCENT OF
NORMAL.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS DURING THE PAST
WEEK…AND SERIOUS EFFECTS ARE STILL OCCURRING. THE WORST
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS ARE BEING FELT WITHIN THE CORN CROPS WITH THE
USDA REPORTING 77 PERCENT OF THE ALABAMA CORN CROP IN POOR OR VERY
POOR CONDITION. ACCORDING TO THE USDA…SOME OTHER PERCENTAGES OF
POOR AND VERY POOR CONDITIONS INCLUDE:
COTTON…..38 PERCENT
SOYBEANS…55 PERCENT
PEANUTS….28 PERCENT
LIVESTOCK..50 PERCENT
PASTURE….52 PERCENT
JULY RAINS DID HELP CROPS RECOVER SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER, THE RECENT
TREND TOWARDS HOTTER AND DRIER WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE TO PUT A
STRAIN ON AGRICULTURE.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS…
THE FIRE DANGER RISK REMAINS HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE
KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI)…ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 500 TO
700 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA…INDICATING A HIGH FIRE
DANGER.
A FIRE ALERT CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AREAS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA ARE NOT UNDER ANY FIRE
RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME.
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS…
STREAMFLOWS CONTINUE A RAPID DECLINE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA…WITH
MOST STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE AREA FALLING BELOW THE 10TH
PERCENTILE. SEVERAL LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO SET DAILY RECORD LOWS.
MAJOR RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS CONTINUE TO RUN MUCH BELOW NORMAL AND
SERIOUS NEGATIVE IMPACTS CONTINUE. POOL LEVELS IN THE MAJOR
RESERVOIRS ARE MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR…AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE IF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT OCCUR. POOL
LEVELS ON MANY RESERVOIRS WILL APPROACH OR REACH WINTER LEVELS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEK IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
SOCIAL IMPACTS…
DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREA WATER SUPPLIES. THE
NUMBER OF MANDATORY AND VOLUNTARY WATER RESTRICTIONS REMAINS STEADY.
FINES AND SURCHARGES FOR EXCESSIVE WATER USAGE ARE BEING ENFORCED IN
MANY AREAS DUE TO THE SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. AREA WATER
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
OUTLOOK…
THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK IS FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST FOR MOST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST…FOR AUGUST 16TH THROUGH AUGUST 24TH…IS
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK…FOR THE REMAINDER OF AUGUST THROUGH
OCTOBER…CALLS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NEAR AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
…UPDATE STATEMENT…
THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND AUGUST
17TH…OR EARLIER IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CURRENT DROUGHT
SITUATION OCCUR.
$$
