WARM, DRY AFTERNOON: Alabama is rain-free this afternoon with temperatures mostly in the low to mid 80s. Thunderstorms will move into Alabama tonight, generally after 7 p.m. SPC has defined a “slight risk” (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms for the northwest corner of the state… there is a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) down to I-59.
The main threat tonight will come from strong straight line winds with heavier storms, but an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out over the northwest corner of Alabama. Storms will weaken after midnight, and the severe threat should be over by 3-4 a.m.
Round two comes tomorrow night… SPC has defined a “slight risk” (level 2/5) north of a line from Linden to Calera to Sand Rock…
For now it looks like the main window for strong to severe storms will come from about 5:00 p.m. tomorrow through midnight tomorrow night. Storms should weaken during the pre-dawn hours Wednesday after midnight. The main threat will come from strong, potentially damaging winds. A brief tornado or two is possible, but not especially likely.
Lingering rain across South Alabama will end at some point Wednesday morning.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Showers are possible over the southern quarter of Alabama Thursday and Friday, but much of the state will be dry. Afternoon highs drop into the 60s over North Alabama Friday.
THE WEEKEND: A wave will form on the front near the coast, and new model guidance now suggests rain will be likely Saturday over much of Alabama. The air will be stable, and there is no risk of severe storms. Then, Sunday will be a dry day with highs in the 70s.
On the positive side, rain amounts will be in the 2-3 inch range over North Alabama, with 1-2 inches for South Alabama through Saturday. See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.
ON THIS DATE FIFTEEN YEARS AGO: A generational tornado outbreak for Alabama. A total of 62 tornadoes, responsible for 252 deaths and over 2,000 injuries. The loss of life came despite excellent and timely warnings for every tornado; we learned that day that physical science is not enough. We need to weave social science knowledge into the warning process, which is happening now. This day will haunt me until the day I die. For us in the weather enterprise, it was our finest day, and our worst day. We continue to mourn the 252 precious people that died April 27, 2011. Never forget.
Look for the next video briefing here by 6:00 a.m. tomorrow…
