ISAIAS GROWING STRONGER: This morning Hurricane Isaias is packing sustained winds of 80 mph; the center is about 420 miles south/southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi River. It is moving to the east/northeast at 9 mph.
A Hurricane Warning is in now effect from Ocean Springs, MS to the Bay/Gulf County Line, FL. This includes all of the Alabama coast. Landfall is forecast near Perdido Key late tomorrow night; winds will be in the 90-100 mph range.
Here are the key messages…
*Isaias is expected to remain a dangerous hurricane through landfall, and gusty winds are expected well inland after landfall given the anticipated expansion of the wind field and accelerating forward speed of the storm. Long-duration power outages are possible along the coast, the Florida Panhandle, and South Alabama.
*A 5-7 foot storm surge is forecast from Ocean Springs, MS to Indian Pass, FL, including Mobile Bay. Highest surge will be east of the storm center across the Florida Panhandle coast. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
*The cities of Gulf Shores and Orange Beach are encouraging all non‑residents, and residents living in low-lying, flood prone areas to voluntarily evacuate. City officials urge all individuals who are not permanent residents to leave the area immediately and relocate to a safer location. Departing now will help reduce congestion, support emergency operations, and ensure the safety of those who may be most vulnerable during the storm.
*Gradient winds across inland Alabama will gust to 40/50 mph at times Saturday morning. Winds will diminish Saturday afternoon as Isaias accelerates northward.
*Rain amounts on the coast will be in the 5-8 inch range for most places. For inland Alabama, average amounts will be 2-3 inches, with isolated amounts to 4″.
*Isolated tornadoes are possible along and east of the track. The risk Friday night is from Baldwin and Escambia counties east to Dothan in Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle. On Saturday, a few tornadoes are possible over the eastern half of Alabama. The tornado threat over the western half of the state is very low.
*The most widespread rain will likely move out of Alabama Saturday afternoon; only lingering, isolated showers around Saturday night with light wind.
As always, remember any tropical forecast can change, so watch for updates today and tomorrow as Isaias approaches the coast.
Sunday looks mostly warm and dry, and all of next week looks rain-free with highs well into the 80s. See the video briefing for maps, graphics, and more details.
FOOTBALL WEATHER: The weather looks favorable for Saturday night’s Alabama/Georgia game at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa (6:30p CT kickoff). Lingering clouds, an outside risk of a passing shower or two, and winds less than 15 mph.
ON THIS DATE IN 1946: A minimal Category 1 hurricane made landfall over Bradenton, Florida, before tracking north-northeast across Tampa Bay. The storm was the last hurricane to make direct landfall in the Tampa Bay area.
Look for the next video briefing here by 3:00 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
