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GRADUAL CLEARING: It is a morning with low clouds and some fog across Alabama; we will be optimistic and forecast slow clearing later today as subsidence in the wake of a departing short wave should certainly help to brighten the sky. Temperatures won’t move much today, with a high in the 47-50 degree range for most places. Tonight will be fair and cold.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: A good snow event is ahead for places like Cincinnati and Louisville, where winter storm watches are in effect. No doubt we will see some snow to the south, but how much remains in question.
Down this way, clouds will return tomorrow, and the day will be warmer with a high in the mid to upper 50s. Some rain arrives tomorrow afternoon over West Alabama, and will continue tomorrow night. We note the latest model runs, at least the GFS, have trended a little drier. The GFS is printing only 0.06″ here, while the NAM isn’t much different with only 0.07″. The lighter rain amounts should help prevent a big issue with bridge icing early Friday as we go below freezing.
SNOW? As far as snow goes, we won’t change our forecast…. meaning we will continue to mention some risk of the rain changing briefly to light snow before ending late tomorrow night, probably in the midnight to 3:00 a.m. time frame (pre-dawn Friday). To the north our pals up in the Tennessee Valley could see a dusting to 1/2 inch… places like Florence, Athens, and Huntsville. Down this way, along the I-20 corridor, we don’t expect any accumulation. We do note the 06Z NAM shows a dusting down to I-20, but other models show no accumulation at all. See the Weather Xtreme video for all the graphics.
Friday will be much colder with an icy north breeze. The good news is the core of the cold air will be north of here, and we might nudge the numbers up a little on the next forecast cycle, perhaps a high closer to 40. Still cold, but not as cold as initially thought. The day will feature a mix of sun and clouds, and a few morning snow flurries are possible on the eastern side of the state.
THE WEEKEND: Saturday morning will be clear and very cold. Again, we might consider bumping up the low temperature forecasts a bit, with a low closer to 20 degrees with teens for the colder valleys. Look for lots of sunshine over the weekend with a high in the 40s both days.
NEXT WEEK: Wet weather returns to Alabama Monday and possibly into Tuesday. Still lots of inconsistency in the specifics between the GFS and the ECMWF, but no doubt it will rain on us at times. Could very well be the most widespread rain will come Monday night. We also note the 06Z GFS shows critical thickness values not too far away, but we won’t bite on any mention of freezing or frozen precipitation for now as most guidance shows only rain.
LONG RANGE: Into the land of voodoo, still no evidence of the mean upper trough over the eastern U.S. breaking down through early February based on the operational global model runs. And, from time to time, potential for winter weather mischief shows up. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
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