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COLD NIGHT AHEAD: Most places will wind up with a low in the low 20s early tomorrow; it would be colder, but clouds should invade the state tonight that will keep temperatures mostly out of the teens. A few of the normally colder spots might hit 18 or 19, however.
THE WEEKEND: The high tomorrow should be in the mid 40s with morning clouds giving way to afternoon sunshine. Sunday will be a partly sunny day with a high in the low 50s.
RAIN OR SNOW??? Ah, the million dollar question arises again for next week’s storm system. Let me say up front it is certainly too early to be really specific with lots of model variation in small scale features, but the general idea of a deepening surface cyclone moving northeast out of the Gulf of Mexico is almost a lock. I encourage you to watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics.
Light rain will move into the state Monday. It could very well begin with some sleet involved during the morning hours, but we still expect this precipitation on Monday to be mostly in the form of a cold rain. The only potential fly in the ointment here would be CAD (cold air damming, or the wedge), which could bring colder air down into East Alabama, and potentially bring up the risk of some freezing rain. We will discount that for now since model output does not show a classic wedge signature.
TUESDAY: The 12Z GFS shows the bulk of the snow associated with the deepening surface low to be east of Alabama, with minimal impact here on Tuesday. However, the ECMWF is slower and colder, and suggests potential for a good snow for much of North and East Alabama Tuesday night. The Canadian is even slower, showing a good snow event for much of Alabama after midnight Tuesday night and into the daytime hours Wednesday.
We have to respect the performance of the ECMWF this cold weather season, and no doubt we need to go ahead and mention some risk of snow for Alabama, especially the northern and eastern counties, by Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Way to early to be specific, but just be aware we have a very real possibility of some winter weather problems Tuesday or Wednesday, and we will fine tune the forecast over the weekend. This has the potential to be a major winter storm with very significant snow, but we just don’t know if the main issues will be over Alabama, or points east like Georgia or the Carolinas.
REST OF NEXT WEEK: The weather looks dry Thursday and Friday, but the long wave upper trough becomes established again by the end of the week with more very cold air invading the Deep South.
VOODOO LAND: No sign of the Greenland block breaking down, and the cold air just keeps coming through early February. And, yes, the 12Z GFS is still advertising a winter weather event for the Deep South around Ground Hog Day. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
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I had a great time today visiting with the 2nd graders at Briarwood Christian School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00! My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted bright and early Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. And, of course, we will have updates here on the blog through the weekend concerning the potential for a winter storm next week. Stay tuned…
