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WARMING TREND CONTINUES: A clipper type system is passing well to the north of Alabama today, producing more snow where they don’t need it (Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, etc)… that feature will keep temperatures around here this afternoon very similar to those we saw yesterday (mid to upper 50s). The sky will remain mostly sunny with a very dry airmass in place.
MILD SATURDAY: We are still projecting highs in the mid 60s tomorrow, and it could very well be the warmest day so far in 2011 (close to January 1, when the high was 64). The sky will be partly to mostly sunny, so get out there and enjoy it; we sure deserve a day like that.
SUNDAY/MONDAY: An impulse will bring clouds, and the risk of a little rain to the state Sunday. The weather stays mild with a high in the low 60s… and Monday will be very similar with the sky generally cloudy and the risk of scattered light rain. We will remain in a mild airmass, but to the north a very cold 1045 mb high drops south, and will set the stage for a potential major snow event for states like Oklahoma and Kansas… maybe as far south as Texas.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: The major storm system will move east, and will bring a big rain event to Alabama by Tuesday night. Both the GFS and the ECMWF have shown a northward trend with the surface low, putting our state in the warm sector, meaning we will have to mention thunderstorms as well. In fact, we might even have some risk of strong to severe storms, especially over South Alabama if the WAA process is as robust as advertised. The rain could be heavy at times with amounts of 1 to 2 inches likely… the main event seems to be shaping up from about 6:00 p.m. Tuesday through 9:00 a.m. Wednesday.
Wednesday could very well be a day with falling temperatures as the rain exits the state; still an outside risk of a snow flake or two on the back side of the departing system over North Alabama Wednesday evening.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Both the GFS and the ECMWF have backed off on the intensity of cold air dropping into the state, but we should be sharply colder on these two days. How cold remains to be seen; we will keep an eye on model trends.
LONG RANGE/VOODOO LAND: The GFS is still showing an icy look for Alabama in the Feb 9-10 time frame, but we all know that is hocus pocus, but the pattern certainly suggests something like that is possible. And, temperatures beyond next week seem to want to remain below average.
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I have a weather program this morning at Moody Elementary School in St. Clair County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
