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THIS AFTERNOON: Scroll down and read J.B.’s post on the miserable weather in progress across Alabama this afternoon. About as nasty as it gets with a steady, soaking rain and temperatures generally in the mid 30s. The rain will taper off in coming hours, and the RPM still suggests some light snow over parts of North Alabama late tonight and tomorrow morning. We don’t expect any accumulation, but a few spots up over the Tennessee Valley could see a dusting. The 15Z RPM is actually a little drier and doesn’t show much at all down to I-20. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
TRAVEL TONIGHT: Temperatures will dip below freezing after midnight tonight, and with some leftover moisture from today’s rain, and the light snow expected, there might be a few icy spots late tonight and early tomorrow on bridges, but major travel problems are not expected.
OUR WEEKEND: Light snow will end early tomorrow, and the will clear tomorrow afternoon as drier air works into the state from the northwest. The weather remains chilly with a high in the low 40s. Sunday promises to be a warmer day with a mix of sun and clouds and a high in the low 50s.
NEXT WEEK: As I mentioned in the morning discussion and the Rick and Bubba show, next week is a big can of worms with lots of cold air and potential for a major winter weather event for parts of the Deep South. You know everybody will be making their guesses on the snow potential for next week, but there is not much skill in dealing with this kind of event days in advance. A strong vort max will move through on Monday with a chance of some light rain or light snow, followed by colder air on Tuesday.
The big show happens in the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. The GFS remains consistent with the idea of a big snow for North Alabama, and the ECMWF remains on board for a big rain event. Which model is right? Remember, the ECMWF has done a pretty decent job this cold weather season, but the depth of snow just to the north and general upper air pattern hints that the ECMWF thermal fields might be too warm. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see BUFKIT analysis from the GFS shows anywhere from 6 to 10 inches of snow for Birmingham Wednesday night into early Thursday, followed by a cold blast that gets down to near zero degrees Friday morning. This sure sounds extreme, but it not totally out of the question.
One way or another, it is way too early to worry about it or be specific. Let’s take a little time over the weekend to breathe and we will have a much clearer picture by early Monday morning.
LONG RANGE: The good news is that it looks like the pattern will relax with a trend toward milder weather for the latter half of February for the Deep South.
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A special thanks to our friends from Blue Bell for remembering their friends on the eve of “National Weatherman Day”… they brought the crew lots of ice cream earlier today. Look for my next Weather Xtreme video here by Monday morning at 7:00… Brian Peters will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!
