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RIGHT NOW: A few thunderstorms are in progress over West Alabama’s Pickens, Lamar, and Fayette Counties at mid-afternoon… they are moving northeast, and are producing some brief heavy rain and lightning. The rest of the state is generally partly sunny, warm, and humid with temperatures mostly in the 80-84 degree range.
We stress we do NOT expect major severe weather issues tonight. A strong storm or two is possible, and SPC has just issued a tiny “slight risk” for Northwest Alabama. But, with weak wind fields, marginal lapse rates, and little helicity, this won’t be a big problem. But, it will rain on us for sure tonight and tomorrow.
ON THE MAP: A strong cold front is nearing the northwest corner of Alabama. Muscle Shoals is reporting 83, but on the other side of the front, not far away, Memphis is reporting a cool 55 degrees, and to the west Fayetteville, Arkansas is at 44 degrees with a cold rain falling.
The cool air will roll into Alabama, along with the rain. The good news is that the 12Z models are coming in drier; the NAM is printing only 0.25″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is at 0.40″. Bottom line is that we can expect one-half inch of rain or less for the next 36 hours, and the rain should be over by late afternoon.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Might be our last chance to visit the upper 30s until late October. The GFS suggests Birmingham could reach 39 degrees early Wednesday… most places will wind up somewhere between 38 and 44. Enjoy it… the long hot summer is almost here.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Beautiful weather with sunny days and fair nights. The high Wednesday will be around 70, followed by mid 70s Thursday, and low 80s Friday.
WEEKEND PREVIEW: Saturday looks mostly sunny and warm with a high in the low to mid 80s; a weak front could kick off a shower or two Sunday, but for now the chance of significant rain looks small. We stay warm Sunday with a high in the 80s.
LONG RANGE: Still no sign of any serious severe weather issues for the next 15 days… see the Weather Xtreme video for details.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. A very special show is in store for tonight. We will cover the epic April 27, 2011 outbreak in Alabama in detail, with visits from Jason Simpson, John Oldshue, Mike Wilhelm and John Brown, as well as the regular cast of characters, who all were actively covering the event last Wednesday. Listen live on UStream at 8 p.m. CDT (notice the early start), or later on iTunes or at www.weatherbrains.com.
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I enjoyed seeing the 3rd graders today at Shades Mountain Christian School… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
