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EARLY THIS MORNING: Widespread rain and thunderstorms is seen on radar over West Tennessee and parts of North Mississippi, but Alabama is calm at daybreak. Temperatures are mild, with readings mostly in the 60s.
Showers and storms will move into our state later today, with the best chance coming this afternoon and tonight. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for North Mississippi, West Tennessee, and a small part of Northwest Alabama, with the main threat coming from hail and gusty winds with the stronger storms. Instability values are somewhat marginal, helicity values are basically non existent, and major severe weather issues are not expected. But, you might hear of a severe thunderstorm warning in spots this afternoon to the northwest.
Storms will weaken after sunset, but showers could linger well into the night. And, we should note today won’t be as warm as recent days with a high in the low 80s.
TOMORROW: Much cooler air blows into the state over the weekend; our high tomorrow will be only in the mid 70s. The models continue to trend drier; we will maintain some risk of lingering showers during the morning hours, but there is a reasonable chance that a good part of the day will be dry with intervals of sunshine by afternoon. But, we note the air aloft will be cold, so we can’t rule out an afternoon shower in a few spots.
SUNDAY: The cool-down continues with a high only in the low 70s. We will forecast a mix of sun and clouds, with only an outside risk of an afternoon shower.
MONDAY: The final part of the upper low passes over North Alabama, and due to the very cold air aloft the air becomes unstable and a few showers will likely form over the northern counties of the state. Some of the heavier showers might even produce a little hail due to the cold pool over the state. And, it will be cool with a high in the 67-70 degree range, over 10 degrees below average for mid-May in Alabama.
AT THE BEACH: If you are headed for the Gulf Coast this weekend, the weather actually looks pretty good. Partly sunny tomorrow with only isolated showers; Sunday will feature a good supply of sunshine. Highs in the low to mid 80s; the water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 81 degrees.
REST OF NEXT WEEK: We will be dry Tuesday through Friday with sunny days, fair nights, and a slow warming trend. We do note a storm system forming west of the state by the latter half of the week, and that might bring some risk of showers and storms to the state by Saturday May 21.
LONG RANGE: The 00Z GFS now shows a deep, long wave upper trough axis just west of Alabama toward the end of the month, but that run is an outlier and it most likely will vanish on the next run. See the Weather Xtreme video for more on long range ideas.
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I am very much looking forward to speaking to the students at Hackleburg today. Their school was destroyed by the April 27 EF-5 tornado, and some classmates were killed. I can’t imagine their pain, but the healing process is now beginning. I will speak to them at 10:00 this morning.
Stay tuned to the blog for updates on the rain/storm situation… and enjoy the day…
