Dangerous situation setting up over Northwest Alabama’s Marion and Winston Counties where thunderstorms that have moved into from the north will be merging with the thunderstorms coming down I-22 and producing very efficient rainmaking storms.
Rainfall rates will be near two inches per hour, with two inches possible in as short as twenty minutes.
In addition, a severe thunderstorm watch has just been issued for West and central Alabama until 6 p.m. It includes Autauga, Bibb, Chilton, Coosa, Dallas, Elmore, Fayette, Greene, Hale, Jefferson, Lamar, Lowndes, Marengo, Montgomery, Perry, Pickens, Shelby, Sumter, Tuscaloosa and Walker Counties.
Read this message from NESDIS, the satellite folks in Washington DC.
SPENES
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 06/28/11 1522Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS—NPPU—TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1500Z KUSSELSON
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LOCATION…S CENTRAL TENNESSEE…NW ALABAMA…NE MISSISSIPPI…
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ATTN WFOS…OHX…BMX…HUN…MEG…
ATTN RFCS…SERFC…LMRFC…
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EVENT…MCS OUTFLOW OUTFLOW MERGERS WITH TN/MS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX…
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS…WITH MULTIPLE MCS OVER AN AREA…OUTFLOW
AND THEIR INTERACTION WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BECOME IMPORTANT
FOR HVY RAIN ENHANCEMENT AND FF. THIS OCCURRING THIS MORNING AS OUTFLOWS
FROM NOW N ALABAMA CONVECTIVE COMPLEX INTERACTS WITH LEAD CONVECTION
FROM W TN/N MS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FOR EVEN MORE ENHANCED RAINFALL.
DEEP MOISTURE BEING FORCED ALONG OUTFLOW AND MERGING WITH CURRENT DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG FRONT END OF W TN/N MS LEAD CONVECTIVE BAND FOR MAX PW
MOISTURE OF 2.25 AND THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL CAN BE EASILY PRODUCED
IN A 30-60 MINUTE PERIOD AND IN SOME CASES AT CENTRAL POINT OF MERGER
THAT AMOUNT IN 20-45 MINUTES. MERGING MESOSCALE PRECIP WATER MAX AREAS
CENTERING ON S CENTRAL TN AND NW AL
BACK INTO NE MS AND THAT IS WHERE THESE TYPES OF AMOUNTS WITH HVY RAIN
BURSTS CAN OCCUR NEXT 1-2HRS.
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AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
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SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1515-1815Z…MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK…AS STATED ABOVE…MERGING OUTFLOW WITH W TN/N MS CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX TO HELP PRODUCE LONGEST AND HVYST SUSTAINED HEAVY RAIN AND FF
THREAT NEXT 1-2HRS CENTERED NE MS/NW ALABAMA/S CENTRAL TN
WHERE HRLY RATES CAN REACH 1.5 TO 2.5″/HR…MORE IF MERGER LAST LONGER
AND AT THE VERY LEAST PRODUCE LOCALIZED URBAN TYPE FLOODING. AREA FOR
THIS CENTERED HARDIN TO WAYNE TO BORDER WITH MS AND AL AND THEN FROM THE
MS BORDER NEAR ALCORN COUNTY TO CHICASAW/MONROE COUNTY MS AND LAUDERDALE
COUNTY AL NEAR BORDER WITH MS TO WINSTON/ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN ALABAMA.
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SEE NCEP HPC DISCUSSION AND QPF/S FOR FORECAST.
….NESDIS IS A MEMBER OF 12 PLANET….
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SSD/SAB WEB ADDRESS FOR PRECIP ESTIMATES:
HTTP://WWW.SSD.NOAA.GOV/PS/PCPN/
…ALL LOWER CASE EXCEPT /PS/PCPN/
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LAT…LON 3590 8870 3550 8718 3390 8732 3421 8958
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NNNN
