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INTERESTING FORECAST: Today will feature a battle between an incoming MCS (mesoscale convective system) from the northwest, and drier air moving in from the northeast.
The MCS is blowing through Arkansas this morning, and if it holds together, it might bring some active weather to Northwest Alabama later today. But, on the other hand, it could fizzle out thanks to the dry air that is settling into the northern part of the state. How about that 5:00 a.m. observation from Fort Payne… temperature 63 with a dew point of 61. More like fall… sure doesn’t feel like an August morning there. Our Skywatcher at Black Creek, northeast of Gadsden, is reporting 64.
The bottom line for now is that we will mention only a small risk of a shower or storm later today due to the dry air, but we will keep an eye on radar trends as the MCS moves east/southeast.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: We have seen hints of another MCS late tomorrow or tomorrow night, and out of respect for that idea we have mentioned the risk of a thunderstorm, with the best chance north of Birmingham. Then, Friday should be generally dry with only a very small risk of any one spot getting wet. Highs will be mostly in the low 90s.
OUR WEEKEND: Model agreement is very good concerning the idea of a deep upper trough forming over the eastern U.S. by Sunday night and Monday. This will push a surface front through the state at some point over the weekend, probably Sunday, and that should bring a round of showers and storms. Otherwise, the weekend will feature a mix of sun and clouds with low 90s Saturday, and upper 80s Sunday.
Much drier air blows in here Sunday night, and for now the first half of next week we are expect sunny days with lower humidity. Nights will be cooler; sure makes us wonder if some of the cooler spots over Northeast Alabama could reach the upper 50s.
TROPICS: All remains quiet across the Atlantic basin. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see that the GFS is showing a tropical system in the Atlantic that will stay east of the U.S. Atlantic coast in about 10-15 days.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
