Eyes On Nate

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WARMER DAYS AHEAD: Not much change in our forecast thinking for Alabama through Saturday. Partly to mostly sunny days, fair nights, and a warming trend. We reach the low 80s tomorrow, followed by mid 80s Saturday.

For now, we have a dry forecast for Sunday, but the 12Z run of the GFS tries to bring moisture up into Alabama with some risk of showers mainly for the southern half of the state.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: The Alabama Crimson Tide heads up to State College, Pa. on Saturday, and it looks like a partly cloudy set-up with a chance of a few stray showers or storms. The State College area has been inundated with flood producing rains over the last two days, thanks to the remnants of Lee which gave us our big flood. Earlier today one person was trapped in his car in high water and was drowned before he could be rescued. Also in Lancaster County, near the community of White Oak, a man was walking in 1.5 feet of water and he was swept away and drowned. The kickoff temperature (2:30 p.m. CDT) will be near 74 degrees, falling to near 70 by the end of the game. Auburn will host Mississippi State (kickoff shortly before 11:30); the sky should be mostly sunny with temperatures rising from near 78 at kickoff into the low 80s by the fourth quarter.

For the high school games across Alabama tonight and tomorrow night, the sky should be mostly fair with temperatures falling through the 70s during the games.

NEXT WEEK: Our weather all depends on the action in the tropics….

KATIA: This hurricane is on the way to being caught up in the mid latitude westerly winds aloft, and will race northeast out into the open Atlantic. No threat to land.

MARIA: The tropical storm in the Central Atlantic looks very disorganized this afternoon, but most models hang on to the system, and show slow strengthening in coming days. Latest guidance has shifted south, and takes the system close to the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Down the road the GFS still recurves Maria east of the U.S., but it might be a close call for parts of the Atlantic Coast.

NATE: As I posted earlier today, models have shifted to the right, and a number of reliable models want to bring Nate toward the Central Gulf Coast toward the end of next week. It all depends on the strength of the weakness/trough over the Southeast U.S. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details; the 12Z run of the GFS brings Nate to the western coast of Louisiana toward the end of next week, with a big mass of rain moving into Alabama the following weekend. Of course, the best possible scenario would be a big rain for Texas, but that only looks like an outside chance at this point.

With such weak steering currents in place, Nate will meander around the Southwest Gulf for a few days with the system most likely becoming a hurricane within 48 hours. A NOAA research aircraft will be deploying dropsondes in the area this afternoon, so tonight’s 00Z runs should be interesting and possibly more accurate and telling. Stay tuned.

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I had a great time today up at the Golden Living Center in Winfield… so many nice people there. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…