A band of storms is sagging ever so slowly into North Alabama late tonight.
Several severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings are in effect for the Tennessee Valley.
Training will occur in some areas. This happens when storms repeatedly move along the same track, as is going to be the case along a west-northwest to east-southeast axis from western Tennessee across northern Mississippi and into North Alabama. Rainfall amounts will average 1 to 2 inches with some 3 to 4 inch amounts likely. Much of the Tennessee valley has recently gone to abnormally dry recently, so the rain will be beneficial if it doesn’t cause flooding.
Storms along the southwestern flank of the complex of storms still have the potential to be severe overnight with the main threats being hail and damaging winds. This potential should run down through Franklin, Lawrence, Cullman, Blount into Etowah and Calhoun Counties.
The tornado threat is decreasing though, which is good news.
here is the text of the discussion:
000
ACUS11 KWNS 040413
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040413
GAZ000-ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-040515-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2012
AREAS AFFECTED…NERN MS…NRN AL…FAR SRN TN…NWRN GA
CONCERNING…TORNADO WATCH 348…
VALID 040413Z – 040515Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 348 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY…ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES APPEARS TO HAVE
DIMINISHED ALONG WITH OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL…ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH AN E/SEWD EVOLVING MCS ALONG THE TN/MS/AL BORDER AREA.
DISCUSSION…PRIMARY SEVERE RISK EXISTS ON SWRN FLANK OF MCS WHERE
ORIENTATION OF HIGHER REFLECTIVITY MORE NORMAL TO THE NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WLYS WILL FAVOR A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. GIVEN THE COLD POOL CONFIGURATION…THIS
SHOULD YIELD A MORE SERN PROPAGATION WITH TIME AS THE FEED OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY OCCURS FROM W/SW IN MS. WITH ERN EXTENT…THE
PARALLELING ORIENTATION OF CONVECTION WITH THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW ALONG
WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE RISK
INTO NWRN GA BEYOND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..GRAMS.. 06/04/2012
