SPC says there is a 60% chance that a severe thunderstorm watch may be issued early this morning for Central Alabama as the storms over Northwest Alabama back into Mississippi sink east southeastward.
They are woried that they are beginning to show bow echo configurations along parts of the line, like in Marion County. This shows higher potential for damaging winds.
We will be monitoring.
Here is the text oft he SPC discussion:
000
ACUS11 KWNS 041033
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041033
GAZ000-ALZ000-041200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1048
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 AM CDT MON JUN 04 2012
AREAS AFFECTED…E CENTRAL/NERN MS ESEWD ACROSS AL INTO THE SRN HALF
OF GA
CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 041033Z – 041200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…60 PERCENT
SUMMARY…SEVERE THREAT — MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS — MAY INCREASE THIS MORNING AS STORMS ROLL SEWD WITH TIME.
THIS POTENTIAL THREAT MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION…LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SEWD
ACROSS NRN MS/NRN AL ATTM…WITH SOME HINTS AT SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHO
DEVELOPMENT ON ERN PORTIONS OF THIS CLUSTER — OVER NWRN AL.
HIGH-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS CONFIRM THIS EVOLUTION OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS…WITH SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT TAKING ON AN
INCREASINGLY BOW-SHAPED CONFIGURATION AND SPREADING THE CLUSTER
SEWD/ESEWD ACROSS AL…AND LATER ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN GA.
KINEMATICALLY…THE NAM HINTS AT AN INCREASE IN WNWLY FLOW IN THE
850 TO 500 MB LAYER THROUGH 12Z AND BEYOND. THIS PROVIDES
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT THAT A MORE WELL-ORGANIZED/BOWING MCS MAY INDEED
EVOLVE…BECOMING ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE FLOW FIELD ALOFT AND
MOVING QUICKLY SEWD — ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM EVOLUTION OF THE
CONVECTION ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THIS MCS FOR SIGNS OF INCREASING
ORGANIZATION/BOWING — WHICH WOULD THEN PROMPT CONSIDERATION OF WW
ISSUANCE ACROSS PARTS OF AL AND GA.
..GOSS/HART.. 06/04/2012
