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NOT AS HOT: A nice, refreshing airmass is over the Northeast U.S. this morning, and we will catch just the far edge of it, but temperatures will back down a bit with highs back in the low 90s today and tomorrow. Humidity will be fairly low for summer in Alabama, and nights a little cooler. Some of the cooler pockets might even reach the upper 50s early tomorrow.
BUT… the heat makes a quick comeback late in the week as the “death ridge” moves back in from the west. We return to the 99-102 degree range Thursday and Friday, and over the weekend the high should be at or 100 degrees Saturday and possibly Sunday. Actual model output statistics (MOS) guidance from the GFS prints 100 for Birmingham Friday, followed by 97 Saturday and 96 Sunday. Keep in mind MOS products skew toward climatology, so often temperatures are hotter in summer with a strong upper ridge, especially with dry soil conditions like we have now. I fully expect some West Alabama communities like Tuscaloosa to experience triple digit heat Thursday through Sunday.
FORGET THE APPS: I probably have 50 twitter messages from people showing screen grabs of smart phone apps showing highs in the 107-111 degree range for North Alabama this weekend. Won’t happen… those apps are based on automated model algorithms, and it won’t get that hot here. Yes, I do believe somebody over in West Alabama might make a run at 104, but 111 isn’t going to happen here. If that is what you app is telling you, you might dump that one.
NEXT WEEK: The upper ridge breaks down a bit early in the week, meaning the heat backs down with highs in the 90s, and it also opens the door for a few scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms by Tuesday and Wednesday. This isn’t a wash-out type rain (although that is badly needed), but at least a few spots could see a nice, cooling shower or storm for a while. But, generally speaking the Fourth of July weekend looks pretty routine around here with highs in the mid 90s, partly sunny days, and that risk of a pop-up afternoon shower or storm.
DEBBY: The tropical storm in the Northeast Gulf will continue to move eastward very slowly in coming days; the main threat for Florida will come from heavy rain and a few isolated, small, brief tornadoes. The bulk of the rain today will be from Tallahassee east to Jacksonville, and south through the peninsula. See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics and details.
GULF COAST WEATHER: Conditions continue to improve. About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine on a daily basis for the rest of the week and the upcoming weekend from Gulf Shores east to Panama City… just a few isolated showers or storms. Highs will be in the 87 to 90 degree range, and the sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is 82 degrees. We should also note the Atlantic basin is pretty quiet, and once Debby leaves tropical storm formation is not expected through next week.
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I will be up in Jasper this morning speaking to a group of kids in a summer program at Bevill State… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
