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Looks like we are in for a storm weekend. This morning, some folks were awakened by thunder from storms moving across Central and North Alabama. I was one of those since I have a dog that definitely does not appreciate the flashes of light and crashing thunder. Hence the reason for being a tad later in getting the Weather Xtreme Video posted. Looks like we will see a break in the action for the latter half of the morning and perhaps much of the afternoon. By mid-afternoon to early evening, though, I expect to see additional showers and thunderstorms move into the area. There is a big question as to exactly where the severe weather threat is the greatest. SPC has an elongated west to east area stretching from west of Waco, TX, to Jacksonville, FL, encompassing the northern two-thirds of Alabama. I think the main risk of severe storms will be from about Montgomery southward. However, the actual area of severe threat is going to depend on where the warm front becomes situated. The GFS seems to have a pretty good handle on the warm frontal position keeping it draped across South Alabama. See the video for the CAPE and shear locations, but they seem to be maximized across South Alabama and the Gulf Coast area. As SPC does note, the main threat is likely to be that of damaging straight line wind and large hail, but with shear values edging close to critical values, we may see an isolated tornado or two.
Rainfall is likely to maximize around 2 inches along the Gulf Coast over the next two days with around 1 inch for Central Alabama.
In the upper atmosphere, a strong short wave moves by Sunday, but a secondary short wave over the Dakotas does not dive southward until late Monday and early Tuesday. This will have the effect of retarding the arrival of the really cold air until Tuesday. We do get colder Monday, but with the real push of the colder air holding off until Tuesday, we see some pretty cold mornings Tuesday and Wednesday. Monday will be a brisk day as the cold air arrives so don’t expect much diurnal range in the temperatures. It is quite possible that some places Monday especially north of Birmingham don’t get out of the 40s. I’m looking for a high in the lower 50s on Monday, so it won’t take much additional cold air advection to drop that into the upper 40s.
The final push of cold air come in Monday night and Tuesday, so look for freezing temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday morning. By Wednesday afternoon and into the end of the week, an upper ridge moves slowly over us returning temperatures to values more typical of late March with highs getting back into the 60s.
Right now it looks like we at least start next weekend dry, but there is another storm system developing off to our west that promises another round of rain for late Sunday into Monday.
Looking into week 2, we should see a wet event centered on April 1st, but then we dry out. A short wave passing well to our north on Friday, April 5th, promises a glancing blow with at least a small chance of rain. After that, the upper ridge builds into the eastern half of the country with another trough over the Rockies for us to deal with around April 10th.
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Thanks for tuning into the Weather Xtreme Video. I anticipate posting the next video by 8 am or so on Sunday morning. With the potential for severe storms and the uncertainty with exactly where the warm front will be situated, be sure to check back to the Blog for later information on the evolution of the severe weather threat. Have a great day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
