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Don’t look, but winter has returned to the Southeast US. At 6 am, it was 61 at Anniston and 44 at Birmingham. Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas saw a record snowfall event yesterday! Just what is happening with this weather?
Well, the real answer is we have an atypical cold core upper low situated over the Lower Mississippi River Valley, and it will be moving slowly east for the next couple of days, creating some interesting forecast challenges for meteorologists. The surface front bisected Central Alabama with the eastern sections warm and cozy while the western sections were shivering with spots dipping all the way down to the upper 30s. Today, even if the clouds break and we see some sun which western sections are likely to do, the temperatures will not get out of the 50s. In fact, I would not be surprised to see a few spots not get to 50 degrees! Let’s see, it is May, right?
The real culprit in our unseasonably chilly weather is an upper cold core low the was centered over North Central Arkansas this morning. The upper low will move slowly across the Southeast US over the next couple of days, keeping temperatures unseasonably cold with our high not expected to break back into the 70s until Tuesday afternoon. Overnight, rain associated with the surface front and the upper low brought widespread 1 to 2 inch amounts to much of Central Alabama. For areas west of I-65, the rain is essentially over, while areas to the east of I-65 will stay west through much of the morning hours. I do expect to see the rain clearing the state by early afternoon. Look for the afternoon highs today to climb all the way into the lower 50s!!
With the influence of the upper low still affecting us, we’ll remain chilly Sunday with some spots dipping into the upper 30s for lows Sunday morning. The chilly air mass will keep highs in the 50s once again. And due to the step change in temperature, we could see some scattered thunderstorms with the potential for small hail. SPC does not outlook any area for severe weather, so I believe the hail should remain small and below severe limits – that’s 1 inch hail or bigger to be severe.
Showers remain a possibility on Monday but we should climb into the 60s with the lower 70s on Tuesday. By Tuesday the closed low should be over South Carolina, so we warm up nicely as the influence of that low begins to lessen. We’ll be under ridging aloft which should continue into Thursday and Friday. By Friday, the next system, a double barreled one at that, begins to take shape west of us. One trough will be coming out of the northern Rockies across Nebraska while a second one will be coming out of the Four Corners area. The two will apparently not phase up, so the northern one slips into the Great Lakes on Saturday while the southern one closes off over Northern Mexico. This should put us in a warm pattern with passing clouds, but for now it sure looks like we stay dry with the wetter weather off to our west.
Week 2 sees a return to a cool pattern with a fairly deep trough along the Mississippi River. While certainly not as cool as the present pattern, this sets a trend for what could be a rather cool-ish May.
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Heading out shortly to set up a rainfall station for the Crawfish Boil in downtown Birmingham. I’ll be providing weather support for the event, and though it looks cool, it should be primarily dry for the music. I hope that you have a great day. I will have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted first thing on Sunday morning. Have a great day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
