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Moisture has increased across the Southeast US, so we’re going to be seeing some muggy days today and Monday. Add to that the presence of a frontal boundary off to the north along with a slight troughniess over the eastern half of the country, and you have the ingredients for numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop in the westerly flow. Aloft, there will be a parade of small disturbances which will help add to the lift already being created by good afternoon heating. Temperatures today are going to be off a few degrees from the last couple of days thanks to increased clouds and the presence of numerous thunderstorms.
Lightning is likely to be a serious issue for the next couple of days, so I urge people to be mindful of lightning safety. Don’t risk getting outside while lightning is occurring in your vicinity. When thunder roars, stay indoors. We don’t want to see anyone become a statistic of lightning.
The upper troughiness sharpens a bit on Wednesday, so it looks like we will see a substantial decrease in showers and thunderstorms in Central Alabama as the focus shifts further south. Not sure we can completely rule out an isolated shower, but it does appear likely that the number and coverage of showers should be down. By Thursday, Friday, and into the weekend, we return to a more typical summertime weather pattern as the upper ridge edges closer to us. Without the small disturbances or short waves moving through the flow, we’ll see the afternoon heating as the main trigger for widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to get up into the lower 90s for the end of the week and the weekend.
The tropics are still relatively quiet. NHC is watching an area of enhanced cloudiness and showers in the western Caribbean. While upper conditions appear more favorable for development, there does not appear to be a surface circulation. Plus we have the added problem of the proximity of the disturbed area to land. So any development is likely to be slow, and NHC places the likelihood of development at 30 percent.
Severe weather risk areas continue to be focused primarily along the front range of the Rockies where upslope flow is helping to enhance thunderstorm development. With the degree of instability that we’ll see today and Tuesday, it is possible that isolated storms could become marginally severe much like we say yesterday evening. Certainly not a widespread severe weather event is expected.
The GFS has been pretty consistent with projecting a big heat bubble for the end of June. While that still is showing up, the GFS now indicates a fairly rapid change to a long wave trough over the eastern half of the country by the third of July. If that happens, we could be entering July on a slightly cooler note.
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Looking forward to a trip to Regions Field today to do a weather safety presentation for a meeting of Alabama Power folks. I expect to post the next Weather Xtreme Video first thing Tuesday morning. But be sure to stay tuned to the Blog for updates on the changing weather. Have a great day and Godspeed.
-Brian-
