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While meteorological Fall begins with September, the astronomical start to Fall actually comes today as the sun traverses the equator on its way south. That happens today at 3:44 pm CDT. An Alabama and the Southeast US will see a beautiful Fall day to kick it off. The front that brought a nice round of rain to the state has moved into the northern Gulf of Mexico bringing some cool, clear weather to the area. Morning temperatures this morning were in the 50s with some fog in the wet valley locations. Our Skywatcher at Black Creek dipped into the upper 40s. Even with plenty of sun today, highs will generally reach into the upper 70s, so a great day for being outside.
For beach goers, showers will still be possible today and Monday though the bulk of the storms will be into the Gulf. Highs today along the beach will be in the lower 80s with highs Monday in the middle 80s.
Monday should be a near carbon copy of today with highs getting into the lower 80s. Moisture will increase quickly as we get into Tuesday, so it appears that showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will be likely on Tuesday afternoon and evening. There has been some question as to how much moisture would return, but the models have come into better agreement on this ahead of the next strong short wave trough moving through the North Central US. Still a little question as to how far north the moisture will come, so the forecast may still need a little tweaking with later model runs.
Showers may linger into the first half of Wednesday but we will see improving weather with the sky clearing by Wednesday afternoon. After that it looks like an upper ridge becomes established over the Southeast US keeping us dry into the weekend. Right now another front along with an upper trough promises to bring a chance for rain and showers on Sunday, perhaps late Saturday as we may have to adjust the timing slightly since we are verging on voodoo country. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 60s. Right now the Friday night football weather looks great and probably any college games on Saturday will be dry, too.
Looking further out into week 2, the GFS is painting a deep trough developing along the Mississippi River around the 5th of October. This could usher in some of the coolest air we’ve seen so far this Fall. But we are in voodoo, and the pattern has shifted a good deal from the run yesterday, so we’ll just watch and see how it develops.
Tropical activity has dropped off somewhat with just one area being watched in the vicinity of Bermuda. That disturbed weather is likely to be absorbed into a front, so there is currently little chance of it developing into a tropical storm.
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James Spann will have the next Weather Xtreme Video on Monday morning. Enjoy the wonderful weather today and Godspeed.
-Brian-
