Karen Struggles

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player on the right sidebar of the blog. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Weather enthusiasts continue to keep their eyes on Karen while the tropical storm continued to struggle. Latest satellite imagery continued to show a sheared storm with only a large batch of convection to the east-southeast of the center. Karen also continued to move toward the northwest and the low level circulation was south of the Central Louisiana Gulf Coast. Models are in good agreement that a turn to the northeast should occur today as Karen comes under the influence of the approaching trough. The storm will be slow at first but as it gets caught up in the upper flow to the north of it, it should accelerate. Hurricane Hunter aircraft did not send a center fix on the latest recon report, so it is possible that Karen will barely be a tropical storm when it does make landfall Sunday night. Wind shear continued to be a negative factor on Karen, so any strengthening is likely to be minimal at best. In the weakened condition, storm surge and wind are not likely to be major factors with Karen. Storm surge is expected to be 1 to 3 feet on much of the Northwest Florida coast, and a big factor will be surging timing relative to the high tide. Wind values are likely to be 35 to 45 mph with some higher gusts, so some minor wind damage will be possible.

Flooding issues as well as the potential for brief tornadoes will be the greatest across South Alabama and Northwest Florida and into Central and South Georgia. Heaviest rainfall should occur along and to the right of the track of Karen. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be possible with potential for 3 to 4 inches in a fairly narrow swath to the right of the track. For much of Central Alabama, rainfall amounts of around 1 to 2 inches will be possible, but I must admit that I have some concerns about getting that much since we will be on the dry side of the storm. The other factor, however, is that an approaching front will add to the mix for rain, so the 1 to 2 inch forecast still seems reasonable.

Be sure to stay tuned to the Blog over the weekend for additional updates on the changing weather scene. Weak systems can throw us a curve sometimes, so we’ll be watching the evolution of the front and Karen throughout the weekend.

For today, our weather looks great. We might see an isolated shower or two over the western sections of Alabama, however, most of us stay dry. There could be an isolated shower near Bryant-Denny Stadium, but the chance is small and any showers should be mainly after the game ends. Temperatures will be in the 80s for most of the game. At Auburn for the Ole Miss game at 6 pm, kickoff temperature will be around 81, falling into the 70s during the game. The game should be dry.

UAB will play Florida Atlantic at 2:00 pm at Legion Field; the sky will be partly sunny and dry. We project 84 degrees at kickoff and upper 70s by the final whistle.

Once Karen is out of the picture, the weather will see smooth sailing for the upcoming week with a large surface high pressure off to the north and northeast of us with an upper level ridge over the eastern half of the country. A strong upper low will come out of the southern Rockies on Friday, and that will bring us our next chance of rain come next weekend, probably late in the weekend. The 06Z GFS model run was only out to about 162 hours when I was doing the Weather Xtreme Video, so no speculation on what week 2 will bring.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

I expect to have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted first thing Sunday morning. Check back often for weather updates. Have a wonderful day, and Godspeed.

-Brian-