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The stormy weather from overnight is gradually winding down this morning. The bulk of the rain and storms has moved generally east of the I-65 corridor, and while the threat of severe weather has diminished, heavy rain is occurring which could result in isolated flooding issues. My rain gauge has seen nearly 2 inches of rain since midnight, and I believe those kind of rainfall numbers are fairly widespread.
And while I was working on the Blog post, the NWS in Birmingham has issued a flash flood watch for the areas east and southeast of the Birmingham area where the slow moving storms are likely to produce generous amounts of rain.
The ejecting upper trough was approaching Lake Michigan this morning and should continue to move rapidly to the north-northeast. But the trough, as we mentioned yesterday, continued to hold back over West Texas. This means that as the rain and storms end this morning and early afternoon, we won’t see the really cold air arrive until Monday. Monday is likely to be a fairly raw day with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures holding steady in the 40s and lower 50s with a northwest wind at 12 to 20 mph.
The upper trough will finally edge by us on Tuesday, so look for rather cold conditions to continue with a high on Christmas Eve in the middle and upper 40s. The upper air pattern continues to be active, however, with a dry air mass in place, we are not likely to see any precipitation chances until early next week. But we will see a steady train of small disturbances moving through the flow, so expect some clouds from time to time. Temperatures will be chilly again on Christmas with lower 20s in the morning but highs near 50 for the afternoon with some nice sunshine. We should see a slow warm up for the latter part of the week as highs climb into the 50s, about seasonal for the latter part of December.
Yesterday we noted that the GFS was indicating a pretty nice warm up, but in true voodoo fashion, that trend has flipped. The GFS now indicates a broad trough situated along with Mississippi River Valley which would keep the eastern half of the country somewhat cold as we enter 2014. Maybe that will flip again tomorrow!
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Be sure to catch the latest weather forecast on ABC 3340 at 5 and 10 pm this evening as I will be filling in for Ashley who is filling in for James Spann during the coming week. We are on a one-a-day schedule for the Weather Xtreme Videos for the coming Christmas week, so I will have the next one posted by 8 am or so on Monday morning. Stay dry and Godspeed.
-Brian-
