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MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR: Not much change in the overall environment across Alabama today; we project a number of showers and storms to fire up with some potential for a few strong to severe storms. SPC has the standard “slight risk” of severe weather up for most of the state…
Like yesterday, the primary risk will come from strong straight line winds and small hail. Better risk of stronger storms will come from about 2:00 until 8:00 p.m. And, like yesterday, it won’t rain everywhere… the chance of any one front yard getting wet today is about 50/50. The high will be in the upper 80s in most places. Storms will settle down late tonight.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: We will forecast routine summer weather both days; mixed sun and clouds with the risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms”. The chance of any one spot getting wet both days is about one in three, and highs will be in the 87 to 90 degree range.
NEXT WEEK: As we all know, there is not much skill in the longer range when it comes to forecasting placement and coverage of the daily round of scattered showers and thunderstorms we have on summer days in Alabama. We won’t try to get cute… best to do for now is roll with a persistence forecast through the week. There is some evidence we might see a bump in the coverage of showers and storms by mid-week with a short wave. See the Weather Xtreme video for the maps, graphics, and details.
AT THE BEACH: Look great this weekend with mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only a slight risk of any one spot seeing a shower from Panama City to Gulf Shores. Highs will be in the 80s, and no major changes next week with only widely scattered showers. The sea water temperature this morning at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab is up to 81 degrees.
TROPICS: The guys at NHC (National Hurricane Center) now have a 50 percent chance of the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche developing into a tropical depression, but it won’t move much, and will probably drift into Mexico this weekend. No impact here. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet.
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I will be in Gadsden this evening for live weather on ABC 33/40, so no afternoon video today, but I will post some forecast notes by 3:30. Enjoy the day!
