The Wednesday morning edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme Video is available in the player below, and on iTunes:
We are forecasting a high of 62 degrees today; that will be like a tropical heat wave compared to the recent cold weather. But, don’t get used to it.
ANOTHER COLD SHOT: The icy north wind will pick up again tomorrow and usher in another blast of very cold air. We won’t get out of the 40s tomorrow, and a hard freeze is ahead for Friday morning. The WRF/NAM is the most aggressive model; it is printing 15 degrees for Birmingham early Friday. The GFS, on the other hand, is showing 20, which is what we have in our forecast. A north wind will still be blowing Friday morning, so temperatures should be fairly uniform (no big inversion), and most communities will wind up somewhere between 15 and 22.
Friday is another cold day with the temperature having a hard time reaching the low to mid 40s. And, yet another hard freeze early Saturday. At daybreak Saturday we will be in the radiational cooling mode with a clear sky and light wind, so the bottom could drop out across the North Alabama valleys. The GFS is printing 18 for Birmingham Saturday morning… looks like our range will now be from 13 to 23 for most places. This is getting close to pipe bursting cold.
Also keep in mind we have had some tragic fire deaths this week, be really careful if you use any kind of space heater on these cold December nights.
THE WEEKEND: After the coldest morning so far this season early Saturday, we begin a warming process Saturday afternoon as we warm into the 50s. We will be flirting with 60 by Sunday, and the weekend will remain dry with only a few high clouds from time to time.
NEXT WEEK: No doubt rain will return to the state at some point next week, but the exact timing is still up in the air. The 06Z GFS, the latest run I have in house as I write this, now shows the lead short wave holding its intensity, bringing rain and a few thunderstorms to Alabama late Tuesday, Tuesday night, and into early Wednesday morning. Then, a second wave comes through on Thursday, but without much rain since the lead wave took most of the significant moisture with it.
LONG RANGE: The GFS continues to forecast a neutral to positive NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) for the latter half of December. That would suggest temperatures near normal, and possibly above normal at times as the upper air winds won’t allow the delivery of Arctic air for any extended period of time. I stress you can have cold snaps with a positive NAO, but they typically don’t last very long and are not severe. But I can see a scenario where the cards fall into place for a cross Polar flow as January begins.
I have to remind the cold weather lovers that we live in a low latitude state, much closer to the equator than the pole. Based on 120 years of weather records, our average low gets no colder than 32 degrees in Birmingham. Long lasting cold snaps are rare here in the Deep South. Big winter storms are rare as well. Yep, they happen, but just not very often.
I notice that there is a Congressional hearing today on the media “global warming” hype, which borders on pure insanity. I am sure the media won’t cover this, but I will be very interested to see how this turns out. Read more on weatherparty.com. I strongly recommend you listen to WeatherBrains Edition 17 sometime, which featured Dr. William Gray, one of the greatest minds in the science of meteorology. See what he has to say about this same hype.
Enjoy today’s warm snap… I will have the next video posted here by 3:30 this afternoon!
