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BIG WEATHER CHANGE: Temperatures warmed into the 70s across Alabama yesterday; some highs included 77 at Montgomery, 75 at Tuscaloosa, 73 in Birmingham, and 72 in Anniston. Don’t expect the same today; in fact the coldest air so far this season will blow in here this afternoon.
The front this morning is roughly along I-40 in Tennessee, and we note a few showers ahead of the front, which could impact the Tennessee Valley during the next few hours. But, down this way, the chance of rain is very small today and most of the showers should fade away before impacting places like Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, and Gadsden.
We do note snow is falling deeper in the cold air, the photo below comes from West Chester, Ohio from @zjmckenzie…
No snow in Alabama, but many of our friends up north are getting their first measurable snow of the season.
ICY WIND: Winds will really pick up this afternoon following the frontal passage; north winds will average 15-25 mph, gusting to 30 mph at times. Temperatures should reach the mid 50s late this morning, but they fall back into the 40s this afternoon as the colder air rushes in.
TOO COLD FOR NOVEMBER: We project lows in the 22-28 degree range both tomorrow morning and Thursday morning, very close to record levels. These are the record lows, based on data from the Birmingham Airport…
November 13 22 (1911)
November 14 24 (1986)
Don’t expect it to be quite that cold at the airport location, but colder valleys should see low 20s both mornings. No record, but we will “bend the vinyl”.
Despite a sunny sky, we won’t make it out of the 40s tomorrow, but a warming trend begins Thursday afternoon with a sunny sky and a high in the mid to upper 50s.
The warm-up continues Friday, with a partly sunny sky and a high in the low to mid 60s.
THE ALABAMA WEEKEND: Moist air will return to Alabama over the weekend, and no doubt we will need to mention some risk of rain, but the news is not all bad.
First off, the weekend will be very comfortable, with a high around 70 degrees both afternoons. And, showers Saturday and Sunday will be pretty scattered, and rain amounts will be light and spotty as the main dynamic forcing remains west of the state.
We will fine tune the forecast as the weekend gets closer, but it sure looks like the main organized band of showers (and possibly thunderstorms) will hold off until Monday. Just be aware if you have something planned outdoors Saturday and Sunday a passing shower is not out of the question, but it won’t rain very much. See the Weather Xtreme video for more details, along with the maps and graphics.
NEXT WEEK: The ECMWF and GFS are in good agreement now, showing a band of showers and thunderstorms Monday moving through the state ahead of a cold front. Severe weather doesn’t look likely, and rain amounts of about 1/2 to 1 inch are projected. Cooler and drier air follows on Tuesday and Wednesday.
STORM ALERT XTREME: Our annual severe weather spotter training is coming up on Saturday November 23 at the Birmingham Jefferson Civic Center (BJCC) as part of the Alabama International Auto Show. We begin at 9:00; admission is free, and if you attend our storm training, you get free admission into the car show when we are done. No need to pre-register, no age limits. Just show up, be ready to learn, and make the Alabama severe weather warning process better!
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I will be doing a weather program for a home school group in Helena this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 4:00 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
