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Our nice Fall weather is expected to continue for another couple of days before some changes hit. However, as we’re beginning to see, the changes may not be quite as bad as we’ve been thinking. But I think I can assure you that these warm afternoons that are running a good 10 degrees above seasonal normals will come to an end by the end of the week.
So we should try to enjoy the good weather that is in store for us for the first half of the week. The upper level wind flow will come around to a strong southwesterly flow toward mid-week allowing us to stay warm. By mid-week, though, the surface high moves off into the Atlantic allowing a southerly flow to bring Gulf moisture back northward. I’m always amazed to look at the surface map and see the southerly fetch reaching Gulf moisture all the way into the Great Lakes area. Just seems like that is such a long distance for the moisture to travel. But if hummingbirds can fly 2,000 miles then I guess almost anything is possible.
We’ll see a warming trend through midweek that will be especially noticable in the morning lows. We’re getting off to a chilly start today with readings in the mid and upper 30s. But by midweek we will be seeing morning lows in the 50s or nearly 15 degrees warmer than what you expect in late November. Highs will also remain mild with lower 70s forecast.
The real action for us will begin on Tuesday and Wednesday as the moisture and clouds increase. A cold front is forecast to approach the state of Alabama on Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center is outlooking a large section of the Gulf coast from Texas to North Florida for the risk of severe weather in the November 29th to December 1st time frame. Looks like the threat for our area will come late on Thursday and early Friday. But there are still some major concerns and confidence is not very high because of model differences. The European model does not show the same strength as the GFS, so we aren’t completely confident in the solutions. Also the cold air could be shallow with the 540 thickness line all the way north into the Ohio valley, but the 850 millibar zero degree line is into Northwest Alabama. The GFS model output values are not coming in quite as cold, so the bottom line is that we will need to watch and see how the details shape up. The risk of any winter precipitation seems to be diminishing somewhat. It is still an interesting pattern that will bear watching.
By midday on Friday the front is forecast to be well east of Central Alabama and moving away, so we should dry out. It would appear that our best threat of rain will come Thursday and early Friday, though with increasing southerly wind we cannot rule out the possibility of showers along the way on Wednesday.
And trolling out to about December 8th, the upper level pattern looks pretty seasonal with a long wave trough over the eastern half of the US. November at the Birmingham airport is running a bit over an inch below normal so we could use some additional rain as we head toward a normally drier December.
We appreciate you tuning in to the Weather Xtreme Video. James Spann will be back in the saddle Monday morning full of Thanksgiving turkey and the latest weather information. I hope you have a great Sunday and upcoming week. God bless.
-Brian-
