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THIS AFTERNOON: Temperatures are well below model forecast levels this afternoon… most places are only in the mid to upper 30s, and the southwest flow aloft over the shallow layer of cold air at the surface has been responsible for a few very light and scattered snow flurries around here this afternoon. The clouds will thicken tonight.
TOMORROW/FRIDAY: A pretty challenging forecast. Rain breaks out over South Alabama tomorrow, and moves up this way late tomorrow night. Surface temperatures will be very close to freezing, and there remains a chance of freezing rain through the morning hours on Friday mainly over Northwest Alabama and to the west over Mississippi and Louisiana.
The RPM has had a good handle on winter weather events this season, and it suggests the best chance of significant freezing rain and bridge icing late tomorrow night and Friday morning will be west of a line from Livingston to Eutaw to Tuscaloosa to Jasper to Cullman to Huntsville. But of course, we all know that temperature contours in reality don’t follow nice lines like that, so we can’t totally rule out some freezing rain for the Birmingham metro. I should also mention there will probably be some sleet as the precipitation begins late tomorrow night, and parts of Northwest Alabama might even see a few snow flakes. Quite a challenging situation for weather forecasters. Be sure and see the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics that go along with this discussion.
We note to the west the NWS in Houston has issued a winter storm watch for Southeast Texas for this wave.
One way or another, you will need to get up extra early Friday morning before you head out to work to check on weather and driving conditions.
For most of the day Friday it looks like a miserable, cold rain with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.
THE WEEKEND: The RPM continues to suggest some light snow is likely on the back side of the departing system late Friday night into Saturday morning. The precipitation will be very light, and for now we don’t expect any really significant accumulation. Clouds will linger much of the day Saturday with a high only around 40. Sunday will be a bit more pleasant, with a mix of sun and clouds and a high in the low 50s.
NEXT WEEK: Very cold air will flood Alabama early next week, but there is little model agreement on the details. I would say the chance of getting some snow is actually good at some point in the Monday-Tuesday time frame, but it is not a favorable setup for a major accumulation. We will have a hard time getting above the low 30s Tuesday with a very chilly north wind, and a hard freeze seems likely for Wednesday and possibly Thursday morning with lows in the teens.
LONG RANGE: The overall placement of the really cold air seems to shift a bit to the west over the latter half of February, and we note a very warm 5800 meter 500 mb ridge developing over the Bahamas. Sure looks like we will trend toward warmer temperatures after mid-month, but still the door is open for shallow layers of cold air to seep in here from the west.
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I had a great time today visiting with the 2nd graders at Bluff Park Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM at 6:00… the 1st graders from Concord Elementary will be on at 5:00. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
