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RIGHT NOW: Again, the GFS forecast temperatures are nowhere close to the truth this afternoon. Many places over Northwest Alabama are only in the 40s; Haleyville reports 48 degrees at 3:00, which is over 20 degrees below average for late March in Alabama. Birmingam is at 59, and clouds are firmly in place statewide. While the radar is pretty quiet, there is a good bit of drizzle around. The big batch of rain and storms from this morning is well to the southeast, where tornado warnings are in effect for parts of Central Florida, in areas just north of Orlando.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: A deep upper trough forms over the region, keeping us cloudy and cool with a chance of light rain or drizzle at times. Model guidance remains too warm; I figure we won’t get past the mid 50s tomorrow, with highs only in the 40s for the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: While we might see the sun at times Friday, I think the day will still be generally cloudy. We begin to warm up as the upper trough shifts to the east; the high should be in the 60s. There is still some energy coming down the back side of the upper trough, so a few widely scattered showers can’t be ruled out, especially Friday afternoon. But the weekend still looks delightful, with a good supply of sunshine Saturday and Sunday with a nice warm-up. The high Saturday will be close to 70, followed by mid to upper 70s Sunday.
SEVERE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK? Sure looks like it; a strong southern stream wave will bring the next round of showers and storms to Alabama; the 12Z global models are in much better agreement, suggesting the event will come Tuesday. And clearly with the forecast degree of instability, lift, and shear, severe weather is a very real possibility. Certainly there is no way of resolving details at this phase of the game, but we will be watching parameters closely in coming days. Seems like we always have some kind of wild weather every year during the first week of April. Anything from snow to tornadoes.
We will turn colder in the wake of the storms Wednesday, but the 12Z runs don’t show a phased look that could bring a serious freeze threat. This could change, so stay tuned. See the Weather Xtreme video for more long range ideas.
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