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YESTERDAY: Go back to this discussion 24 hours ago, and I wrote that the forecast was “fraught with danger”, knowing in my mind everything that could go wrong with a forecast in this kind of pattern. Very shallow cold air at the surface, upper trough to the west with a disturbed southwest flow aloft. Models were clueless on the big overrunning event that started about 6 hours ahead of schedule, and also clueless on the cloud physics going on and the processes that pushed temperatures into the upper 20s at mid-afternoon (2 meter temperatures off all models were generally around 40, when the actual observed temperature was around 28). Just another reminder of how much we don’t know… humility is greatly missing from this science.
TODAY: As expected, temperatures did rise slowly overnight, and Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston are all in the mid 30s. The sub-freezing temperatures are mostly to the north and west, although we note that Gadsden is still holding 32 at 5:00. The biggest risk of bridge icing for the next couple of hours will be over Marion, Winston, Fayette, Lamar, Franklin, Lawrence, Cullman, and the northern part of Blount, Etowah, and Cherokee Counties.
The bottom line is that we expect no widespread travel issues (other than wet roads) for Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, and Anniston this morning, and the ice on bridges to the north should melt by mid-morning as everybody rises into the mid to upper 30s. The day will be cold and wet with occasional rain and a high around 40 degrees.
TONIGHT/TOMORROW: The rain will taper off this evening, but the RPM continues to show a band of light snow, associated with the upper trough, moving in here late tonight and tomorrow morning. The snow should be light and no major accumulation is expected, but some spots could see a dusting before it ends by mid-morning. Also keep in mind that temperatures will dip into the mid to upper 20s early tomorrow, so there might be a few icy spots on bridges thanks to lingering moisture from today’s rain, and the light snow that falls tonight and early tomorrow.
The sky should clear tomorrow afternoon with a high in the low 40s.
SUNDAY: This will be the nicest day of the weekend, with a high in the low 50s along with a partly sunny sky.
NEXT WEEK: A big can of worms. Model madness rules. No doubt we will have some very cold air at some point… the big question is the timing of the cold air, and the potential of yet another winter storm.
Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for details… but the 06Z GFS brings a strong vort max in here Monday with much colder air and some risk of light snow. Cold air stays in place Tuesday and Wednesday… then a deepening surface low moves out of the northern Gulf with potential for a big snow Wednesday night, followed by the coldest air so far this season by the end of the week. However, the ECMWF is slower and warmer, showing a big rain on Thursday before the very cold air gets in here on Friday. The bottom line is that nobody knows how it will unfold now… a matter of waiting and watching. We do note some runs of the GFS have printed as much as 7 inches of snow in Birmingham, with temperatures down to zero by Friday morning (see the video for this BUFKIT output). Nothing but hocus pocus for now, but no doubt it will be the weather talk of the weekend.
LONG RANGE: I sure get the idea the big Arctic blast late next week will be followed by much warmer weather over the latter half of February. We can all use that.
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We had to cancel our Storm Alert 2011 opening show last night in Springville… as soon as we get the new date will post it here; next week’s show is scheduled for Thursday night in McCalla at McAdory High School. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!
