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Observations around this part of Alabama right now are generally in the low 40s, well above freezing. Temperatures should rise into the upper 40s by the lunch hour today, maybe even reaching the low 50s in a few places. But, the leading edge of some really cold air will arrive by early afternoon; north winds will increase and temperatures will begin to fall. You will know it when the front blows through here.
We expect the temperature to drop below freezing around 8:00 tonight, and stay below freezing for 14 hours, until 10:00 a.m. tomorrow. By daybreak tomorrow morning most communities will be somewhere between 15 and 20 degrees. If we reach our forecast low of 18, that will be the first time we have visited the teens this year (based on data from the Birmingham Airport, where the records are kept). The coldest observation so far in 2006 was 22 on February 19.
FRIGID FRIDAY: Even with maximum sunshine we will have a hard time getting above 40 tomorrow. Most places north of U.S. 278 will see a high only in the mid to upper 30s; we are projecting low 40s for the I-20 corridor, which might be a tad too warm.
We will begin the weekend with another hard freeze early Saturday, but with the usual huge variation from valleys to ridges thanks to a clear sky and calm wind. We figure the lows will vary from 13 in the coldest valleys to 30 on the ridgetops. A good average number for Saturday morning is 20.
I won’t rundown the “common sense” things to do like the news people often do (turn on your heat, wear warm clothing, etc… duh!) but we did have tragic loss of life in house fires early in the week, and most of those fires were attributed to space heaters. Just be really careful. And bring in the dogs and cats, they don’t like this cold weather either.
NEXT WEEK: Rain returns to Alabama next week. Temperatures will be much milder; we should see highs in the 50s or low 60s on most days next week. The first round of rain will come Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a fairly robust short wave; some thunder could be involved but for now any severe weather threat looks minimal.
The trailing short wave looks pretty healthy on the latest GFS in hand (the 06Z run), and now the model looks pretty wet at the end of the week on Friday (December 15) with a surface low near Chattanooga.
LONG RANGE: Snow and ice fans will love the 384 hour panels of the 06Z GFS valid December 22; it shows cold continental air covering much of the nation, and a stalled front just south of here with shallow cold air over North Alabama. The freeze line at 850 mb (around 5,000 feet) is down around Troy. But, lets all say it together, that is voodoo right now. It will probably be gone on the next run. And, with a positive to neutral North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) I won’t get too excited about snow or ice far in advance.
I need to stress we can have winter storm threats and cold air without a negative NAO, but it is just a little harder for the needed features to line up in the right place. Also, I remind you we have never seen a “White Christmas” here in the classic sense; weather records here go back to the 1880s and a big blanket of snow on the ground Christmas morning has never happened. Read more here.
WEATHER PARTY: Join the party over on our sister site; you can read more about yesterday’s Congressional hearing on the media’s insane “global warming” hype. Always some good reading over there.
We will keep you updated on the progress of this latest blast of cold air; I will have the next Weather Xtreme video posted by 3:30 this afternoon!
