The tail end of our first MCS is pushing through East Central Alabama early this morning. Storms are strong at this hour across southern Chambers County into northwestern Lee County, with the strongest part of that cell near Waverly. There may be some small hail with it. Moderate rain and storms now cover parts of Calhoun, Cleburne, Randolph, Chambers, Lee, Tallapoosa, and Coosa Counties.
To the west, more rain and storms over the northwestern part of Alabama. Storms extend from northern Tuscaloosa and southern Fayette Counties through much of Walker County. This activity is pushing rather quickly to the east and will affect much of northern Tuscaloosa, Jefferson, southern Cullman and Blount Counties.
Light to moderate rain covers much of Lamar, Marion, Winston, and Franklin Counties.
Back to the west, storms are over northeastern Louisiana, straddling I-20 between Monroe and Vicksburg. These storms should intensify through the early morning hour, but they will be moving more northeast than east, and they should stay mainly west of our state. They could clip the northwestern corner of the state later this morning, but again, they should be mainly an impact for northern Mississippi and western Tennessee.
Big storms over northern Mexico will explode over the Texas Hill Country later this morning near San Antonio. This complex will cause severe weather later today across much of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi. This activity is expected to weaken before it reaches western Alabama late tonight, but they will bear watching.
The main cold front and a weak surface low will approach from the west on Monday, giving us another round of rain and storms. The SPC has a marginal risk of severe weather shown on their Day Two Severe Weather Outlook for much of Alabama. Marginal is the key word here, with clouds and rain limiting the instability. Highs will be in the middle 70s. Rainfall amounts could be decent, with 1.5-2 inches of rain possible thanks to some high precipitable water values over Alabama.
